Cald-Out
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Dec 21, 2009 9:29 PM PST
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DANIEL:
The Ducks have gone on a pretty impressive 4-1-1 stretch. It isn't time to get happy or think playoffs, but it is time for the Ducks to make sure they have their lines worked out to keep the wins coming.
The Ducks top line, which was carrying the offensive load for long stretches (see Perry's 19 game point streak) has started to cool down in 5-on-5 play. In recent games, the vast majority of scoring done by Getzlaf and Perry has been done on the power play, and while scoring chances haven't dried up completely, the lack of production should be a concern. Additionally, Getzlaf, Perry, and Calder are -3, -4, and -3 respectively in their last 5 games.
It's not a far leap to say that the top line has greatly deteriorated since Calder took over for Lupul. However, as the Ducks other three line begin to solidify in play and chemistry, the options for shaking up the top line seem to be dwindling. Arthur, do the Ducks tough it out with Calder, or is it time to explore other options either through trade or within the organization?
ARTHUR:
Well, first, I should say that if someone scoring on the power play is a problem, we should've gotten rid of Teemu during the 2005-06 season. And second, I think it's dangerous to characterize this line in terms of +/- when they're playing against top lines, something that Kyle Calder probably has the most experience doing. By that criterion, Getzlaf is probably the weak link. I wouldn't call it 'toughing it out,' but if the question is can Kyle Calder learn to cycle the puck effectively enough to play as a passenger with Getzlaf and Perry, then yes, he can.
J.P. Hoornstra had a good article today about whether or not the Ducks have become a 'fastbreak' team. And I think they have; the success of Dan Sexton speaks to that. Despite their dumping and grinding of late, this team is creating its opportunities with speed. In that sense, the top line has become a last bastion of the old Ducks, the Big, Bad Ducks, who thrived on the cycle and the swarm. It seems strange to say it, but the top line, which plays against the opposing top line and dumps and grinds the puck into the corners, is morphing into the team's new shutdown line. And that's not bad hockey. If they can learn to get the other team's top players off the ice tired, then the other lines can open up the game without fear of being beat in transition.
That doesn't mean the top line won't score. They've always cycled the puck, and they can certainly score while doing it, even against more dangerous competition. But we can't expect the same offensive production, especially when they are learning to be defensively conscious of the opposing line. We certainly can't expect that putting someone more offensively skilled in place of Calder will turn them into plus players against the best lines in the NHL.
We can probably put a better checker in place of Calder to create some marginal improvement, but nothing we do, including putting Lupul or Selanne on the top line is guaranteed to turn Marleau-Thornton-Heatley into minus players.
DANIEL:
I see the transition in offense and I also see how the top line isn't built for that style. However, I think there is a great concern in terms of how the top line is producing in even strength situations. I know that Getzlaf, Perry and Ryan were an effective stopper line last year.
ARTHUR:
I don't think they were any more effective than this trio. I mean, if you factor in the Detroit series, where Marchant spent most of his time with Datsyuk's line, then Getzlaf, Perry and Ryan were 18 P, 14 P and 7 P, +3, +2 and Even respectively. That seems just as much of a defensive liability as this -3, -4, -3 group, and that first trio had Chris Pronger. Maybe Ryan could re-create their OFFENSIVE dominance, but that's where he played to open the season and he was snakebit.
DANIEL:
Well, I think that's what we're losing. We're losing the possibility for this line to score enough to make up for the defensive liability. The fact is, the Ducks top line is only effective when it has control of the puck. It's not like the original stopper line that was just as effective in the defensive zone as it was in the offensive zone. Once the puck gets turned over the top line usually relies on the D to generate the turnover or for a clutch save. I'm not saying they are completely irresponsible in their own end, or that they are ever shy to go into the corners, rather they just aren't as good at waiting out the opposition and denying quality chances. The only value of putting the top line against other teams' top lines is the hope that Getzlaf and Perry will find a way to spend more time in the other team's zone than their own, as you've already said.
I know that they are still getting it done on the power play, and no one will say that's a waste, nor did I mean to imply that. I'm just saying that if this line isn't being productive at even strength, chances are, they are not fulfilling their stopper role appropriately.
On that note, I DO think it's time to explore other options. Maybe it's my imagination, but I just don't think Calder is contributing to the chemistry of the line. We've had a lot of success with our prospects this year, so far, and it might be time to go back to the well. I know Logan MacMillan needs a chance at the NHL level before we give up on him, and he could certainly play defensive hockey on that line. But if we don't do something, then our top line's even strength play is going to be a problem against the great lines in the league, not unless Calder shows the improvement that you think he will.
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It’s not the minuses that bother me; it’s the lack of pluses.
Getzlaf and Perry have combined for one even-strength point in the last five games with Calder. The five games before that they combined for ten. Anaheim has enough lines already that don’t produce goals; can’t add Getzlaf and Perry to that list for very long and continue to succeed, I suspect.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
But if we’re getting wins with the speed game, and Carlyle starts to emphasize the second line (which he has), the pluses can come from somewhere else (as they are). Might not last forever, but it’s better than Carlyle playing that first line to death the way he was last month.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Dec 22, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions
We’re getting wins with the defense, I think — but I don’t know that I’m arguing that he play the first line to death — just their minutes don’t necessarily have to be close to scoreless.
I’d hope the Getzlaf line, whomever they may face, could outscore the Parros line, whomever they may face, for example — the last five games of Calder that hasn’t been the case, at least.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
You think defense, really? I mean, I’ll admit the defense is playing better than they did to open the season, but I feel like we’re still habitually outshot in games. Even in the Vancouver win where we carried the play and held them to something like 2 shots in the first, they went up to double digits and outshot us in the 3rd. It helps to have someone like Brookbank in there making the prudent play, but I don’t feel like we’re shutting the blueline door in the 3rd, not to the point that it is principally creating the win.
I feel like our wins our dependent on production on lower shot totals in games where the over under is around 5. And Carlyle seems to be spreading out his expectation of where we get those 3 goals. It just doesn’t feel like a system where we should be terrified that the game changers hit slumps. It really feels more like the Red Wings, where they still won games with Datsyuk or Zetterberg scoreless, even injured, because they found production in a Cleary or a Franzen.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Dec 22, 2009 4:20 PM PST up reply actions
You think defense, really? I mean, I’ll admit the defense is playing better than they did to open the season, but I feel like we’re still habitually outshot in games.
Yeah, the Ducks in their last 15 games have allowed 39 goals; the 15 games before that they allowed 54.
Their penalty kill in the last 15 has allowed 8 goals; the 15 games before that it allowed 17.
You are right about shots, though — Ducks in their last 15 games have been outshot by 43 shots; the 15 games before that they were outshot by 42. But I have to think that at least the quality of opponent chances has decreased, based on the other numbers.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I think those numbers might be more indicative of us getting better goaltending than getting better defensive play. It also might reflect the fact that Wisniewski’s ice time is being reduced and therefore we are not making as many turnovers.
However, I agree that the top line’s play has diminished and that Calder’s 3rd line tool kit isn’t translating to the top line’s play the way we’d all like.
just had to blame wisniewski. Even though Boynton has also had turnovers directly resulting in goals, and Whitney turned it over early as well. Just couldn’t pass up the potshot, could ya?
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Dec 22, 2009 7:53 PM PST up reply actions
I think the new penalty killing system with the more traditional penalty killers should be credited with the PK improvement.
And on goals allowed, I think we’re getting better third period goaltending. We’re moving away from giving games away late, but we’re still giving up the play and the requisite shots in the third period. I hate the scoring chances stat (and I assume you do, too, as it involves Hayward), but I haven’t seen us force shots to the outside or give up low percentage shots when we have the lead.
The defense is definitely moving the puck better, but they’re not frustrating the opposition or anything. I just don’t think I can principally credit them with the turnaround. It’s on par with what you said about the Ducks being an AHL team. If we’re a 2-3 GA team that doesn’t shoot itself in the foot in the 3rd, then we’re playing NHL caliber, but I don’t think any one part of the team is singlehandedly winning games.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Dec 22, 2009 8:00 PM PST up reply actions
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