You Can't Ride Two Horses . . .
ARTHUR:
Anaheim let yet another victory slide out of their hands last night as, for the second time in as many efforts at Xcel, they let the Wild climb back into the game and claim the victory in overtime.
Daniel, there's a tendency to talk bounces and the nonsense of 'living right' when you have to listen to John Ahlers all year, but there is a fundamental problem with this team. Even in games where the 'effort' was supposedly there for 60 minutes, the Ducks are giving away wins on so-called flukes. Where is the real problem? Is it coaching, offense, defense or goaltending?
DANIEL:
Hmmm . . . all of the above.
This is a difficult thing to nail down. The fact is, as soon as the Ducks fix one thing, something else goes wrong. Against the Stars, we fail to convert multiple scoring chances, and as a result a couple of bad goals lead to a loss. If our offense had shown up, we probably wouldn't have been as deterred by the one bad goal. Tonight, we have a two goal lead and give it up in the final five minutes, clearly a defensive problem. The inability to be consistent and keep everyone focused is a coaching problem.
The only problem I don't think we've had recently is between the pipes. Giguere was on a tear at home, and I'm not sure Carlyle should have interrupted that streak. I know Jiggy lost, but he put together the most impressive string of wins we've had all year. Let the guy hold onto the job for a while, and see if he can keep it at one loss.
In the interest of making a selection, I will begrudgingly say coaching is the problem. It seems to me that the Ducks are incapable of finishing, and that comes from a lack of focus. I know that's a tough thing to hang on a coach, as he can't necessarily control his players' focus, but he should be able to appropriately motivate them. I have been a strong advocate that Bob Murray made multiple mistakes with his player acquisitions, and that this has affected Carlyle's ability to execute his system. I still believe this. However, at some point, you have to make do with what you've got, and Carlyle has proven to be as hesitant as his GM. He engages in constant line shuffling, a lack of confidence in his young players and an inability to let players work through their adversity, choosing instead to simply scratch or otherwise move a player around the lineup. His lack of confidence in other players has led to an overuse of both the top line and Scott Niedermayer.
The Ducks are disorganized, and that is a symptom of an organization in disarray, not the ineptitude of the players. Although, there is plenty of that as well.
ARTHUR:
I'm going to completely disagree and say goaltending is the problem and the only problem in the games where we blow a lead late. The team is making a better effort to closeout 3rd periods, probably their best effort of the season last game, and it still wasn't enough. If this were baseball, and a team was giving away games in the 9th, games where they had run support, why wouldn't you blame the bullpen? Why wouldn't this be a closing issue?
DANIEL:
I'm willing to concede that Hiller does not look like the guy who frustrated the Sharks 7 months ago, But Jiggy hasn't looked this good in almost a year and a half. Can you honestly say, after his astronomical save percentage over his past 5 starts, that he's been what's wrong with our team?
ARTHUR:
Both guys have been great early, but too many of these 3rd period goals are suspect. Against Dallas, Jiggy got caught cheating off the pipe. That's not the kind of goal you give up in the 3rd period of a one-goal game. Granted, the game-winner came off a nearsighted play by Wisniewski, but Jiggy wasn't exactly working damage control afterward. And I would say the problem with Hiller is he looks EXACTLY like the goaltender that frustrated the Sharks 7 months ago. This is who Hiller is, moving too much, guessing too much. On a team of consistent top shelf snipers, it's impressive. Against the rest of the NHL, teams willing to just get the puck on net, Hiller can look silly. Last night, I think he had the loudest feet that have ever played at Xcel, and that includes high school tournaments. He was sliding laterally with his thighs akimbo, taking shots off the inside of his pads. He wasn't tracking the puck at all. He's lucky he didn't give up ten goals.
At the end of the day, our goaltenders aren't giving us their best stuff in the ninth inning. Yes, this is a leaky defense, and yes we're going to give up shots. But that's the job. Neither goaltender is applying for a position in a Lemaire system, here. If you have four goals and a two-goal lead in the third, you need to close. I need to see your best stuff. I need to see you using your positioning, shutting down the angles and moving with feet so quiet you could sneak up on a bat. If we blow a save, so to speak, it should be because a team put together a Herculean effort, an unstoppable play. It should be because they had to, because we had all the high percentage shots and angles covered. It shouldn't be a one-timer off the draw, a shot from the goal line or any of the other shenanigans that have worked on us at the end of these games.
You're right that the answer to this problem is to get rid of the "you win, you're in" system. As long as we have two quarterbacks, we really have none. We need to choose a goaltender, even if it's the wrong choice. We need to put our confidence in one guy and give him the lion's share of playing time. Until then, it's just a parade of performances where the netminder is so desperate to get the next start that he tightens his grip on the game, and it inevitably slips right out of his hands.
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I had this same conversation with a friend last night.
More specifically this damn, “win and you’re in” mentality.
I’m on board with a coaching change. I still think Carlyle is trying to shove the old defensive style from the cup run down this teams throat, when this team is not equipped for that because Murray bought offense this past off season. This team needs a new style of play that focuses on the offense we have.
It’s obvious that Carlyle and Murray aren’t on the same page.
The goaltending has been a huge issue too. I don’t think we’re getting the same results from Hiller. Ironically, I think we’re finally starting to get more from Jiggy. But, I think that what’s more important is that it seems like the team is trusting Jiggy more. They’re playing with more confidence in front of him than they are in front of Hiller.
Carlyle needs to make a decision and stick with it. I think he was hoping that he would be making his goaltending decisions based on winning instead of losing.
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Although a coaching change won’t solve all of our problems, we definitely need to get rid of Carlye. It seems fairly evident that the team has tuned him out.
It wasn’t an option in the question, but I really think we have a GM problem, not a coaching problem. If you check out puck daddy’s top 10 GMs of the past decade, under Burke he talks about how the Ducks attitude during the 2007 Cup run was a direct reflection of Burke’s attitude as a GM. It’s no wonder we can’t get it together when Murray has no sense of direction. Everything starts from the top and trickles down. When the GM doesn’t know what he’s doing and doesn’t have a plan, the players lose focus as well.
I’m with ya here Daniel. Problem is, having a GM that has no direction is an absolutely franchise-crippling problem. At least he hasn’t signed a bunch of terrible expensive long deals or anything.
This is pretty much in line with what I was saying this summer, and more so after Anaheim stumbled coming out of the gate, that having your GM build a team that specifically does not jive with your head coach’s preferred style is not a good idea, especially when that style is very much a part of your team’s reputation, identity, and ingrained in several of your players already, and when that style has been highly successful for your team.
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Sacrifice the Body - Examining the NHL through statistical analysis, reasoned thought, and blind conjecture.
Tough for Samueli to replace Murray when he had his legal troubles to worry about. And it’s also tough for Samueli to understand how bad Murray is at this job when the hockey media has so thoroughly praised the interim GM (that’s right— I said it) and he’s there on Burke’s recommendation. Murray really has no business being a GM after his shenanigans in Chicago. At least Burke was a deal maker. I’d hate to see what Murray would have done to re-sign Getzlaf and Perry. Probably threaten arbitration then pay them 10M each a week before the arbitration hearing.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Dec 5, 2009 11:30 PM PST up reply actions
Actually, I had wanted to mention Samueli earlier today, but the computer at work sucks and killed my post. Pretty bad time to have the owner be unable to deal with the hockey team, as you’re handing the reins from one GM to another.
I also wanted to say earlier that its kind of a bummer that I finally got Center Ice, just in time for the Ducks to suck. Having followed BoC for a few years now, and watched a rivalry born between Anaheim and Detroit, I really wanted to watch some Ducks games, and never had CI. Now most of the PST games I watch are LA, SJ, PHX.
However, in the games I have seen the Ducks play, I can’t say that the goalies have directly been responsible for the Ducks woes this year. For example, while Hiller may not have been totally sharp in that game that let TOR get their first win, the team around him certainly was trying to do everything they could to give away the game as well. Every time I’ve seen Hiller this year, he hasn’t looked particularly sharp, but I would say he’s been “adequate”. Of course, “adequate” goaltending does not get you the kind of record the Ducks have so far; a lot of other things have to go wrong to get to the basement as well. With the lack of depth (or quality in general) along the blueline, unremarkable forward depth, no true “shutdown” line, and a second line that has been inconsistent, your margin for error becomes pretty small. When you take a ton of penalties or give up a couple bad goals, that gets to be too much to overcome, whereas the Ducks used to be overcome such obstacles by strength along the blueline and a shutdown forward line.
Really, it seems to me that the Ducks tried to become a high-flying scoring team without doing anything to ensure the defense remained competent, if no longer super-elite, or without even getting enough forwards to play that kind of high scoring game, especially given the conference they’re in. 2 scoring lines (hopefully) plus almost nothing else of note can be enough to be competitive in the East, where no one bothers to knock down Crosby in the opposition slot, but in the West, you’re going to get your ass kicked by a bunch of teams that like to play like the Ducks USED to play.
Overall, it just seems like piss poor decision making and execution, and I’m not sure that a whole lot can be done on the ice to change it with the current personnel. No matter how bad you want it, you can’t make some of these not that great players into the players you wish they were.
http://sacrificethebody.blogspot.com/
Sacrifice the Body - Examining the NHL through statistical analysis, reasoned thought, and blind conjecture.
Also, I think any team in the West that deliberately tries to move to more of a Eastern Conference style gets what they deserve. Allowing guys like Crosby and Ovechkin to run roughshod around your zone without being flattened is not hockey. You’re in the Western Conference, play like it.
You can go ahead and point out that the East did get to walk off with the Stanley Cup this year… but if PIT actually had to play a series against a team like last year’s Ducks, or even the Blackhawks, they probably wouldn’t quite have made it, because those series are what turn the playoffs into a war of attrition. If DET got to play a bunch of softies like that (LOLercanes!) , they probably would’ve pulled it off. Yes, I’m still a little bitter about that.
http://sacrificethebody.blogspot.com/
Sacrifice the Body - Examining the NHL through statistical analysis, reasoned thought, and blind conjecture.
I don’t blame the goaltending in poor efforts. When the whole team shows up, I don’t expect the goalies to claim the win. What I’m talking about in this post is games when the goalies HAVE a win in the 3rd period. Dunno if you’re a baseball fan, but I’m talking about save situations. If a goalie has ‘goal support’ and the team is actually playing prudent hockey in the 3rd, he has no business letting in soft goals. And yet our goalies have REPEATEDLY. Two games against Minnesota in Xcel alone. The ability to shut the door and close is on the goalie. I forgave it early in the season because the team wasn’t showing up in the 3rd period. But now, we’re playing to win in the 3rd and so-called “fluke” goals are getting in. Half of those goals aren’t flukes in my opinion. They’re bad goaltending.
The decision to go full Eastern Conference is a recent development. Carlyle has been open to new systems. And you and I have talked about that, in terms of what Ruff did in the post-Dominator era in Buffalo. The Ducks were successful playing high-risk offense at home; it resulted in a winning streak, actually. I don’t think Carlyle minds doing that. The Chicago-Vancouver series last year was basically an Eastern Conference series with the occasional hit. There are plenty of teams in the West that have found a way to open the game up with their speed and rely on the referees to protect them. It’s cheap, but it’s the new NHL.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Dec 6, 2009 11:13 AM PST up reply actions
Although Murry may be an incompetent GM, I’m not sure how much of this mess can really be attributed to him. I think that Brian Burke deserves the majority of the blame. I think that it is too early to judge Murry as he was basically just left to clean up Burke’s mess.
Warning: Baseball analogy follows
Say Burke is a starting pitcher and Murry is a relief pitcher. So Burke loads the bases and is then removed from the game. The Ducks bring in Murry in relief and Murry proceeds to give up a grand slam. Sure Murry gave up the home run, but Burke is charged with 3 of those 4 earned runs.
End Baseball Analogy
Yeah, but Burke left the bases as empty as he could when he left. There was a ton of expiring contracts or contracts coming close to expiring, without any terrible long term boat anchors, except maybe for Bertuzzi’s buyout. He left flexibility, and instead of keeping the ship on the same course, Murray decided to flip it around and into a sandbar.
http://sacrificethebody.blogspot.com/
Sacrifice the Body - Examining the NHL through statistical analysis, reasoned thought, and blind conjecture.
There was certainly a budget issue when Murray took over, and no owner to approve spending over the revenue percentage. But you really have to take a behind-the-scenes look at how Murray messed things up. This is the guy who lost his job for signing Wendel Clark, calling him worthless and then having to buy him out.
I judge a GM by the players he takes a chance on and the moves he makes.
By my count, Murray has produced maybe five players from his various roles in the Ducks organization: Bertuzzi, Morrison, Huskins, Beauchemin and Boynton. We lost money on Bertuzzi, Morrison sucked in our system, and Murray apparently thought Beauchemin was ‘too good’ to tender him an offer before or during free agency. The best in that lot is probably Huskins, because Murray was able to sweet talk Wilson into giving him something.
So, we move on to moves. Huskins and Moen for prospects was a good move, although that’s a sweetheart deal as Wilson used to play on a pairing with Murray. Already, O’Dell for for Christensen is a wash. He called in a favor to get Wisniewski for Pahlsson, but he chickened out on Wisniewski’s arbitration and gave the guy 2.75M (which means he must have thought he had to offer Beauchemin something like 5M? Murray math is some shit). On the Whitney deal, Kunitz cleared longterm money and Tangradi was maybe an overhyped prospect (though I don’t think so), but Whitney, despite his size, is not a replacement for Pronger. Murray WAS a shutdown defenseman, and I don’t know if he’d know one if he saw it. So, with Whitney in hand, he moves Pronger for Sbisa. With his ‘brilliant’ eye for defensive talent, he thinks Sbisa is NHL-only, and we won’t have to worry about sending him to the juniors, he’s play or trade. That becomes a wash, too, and suddenly, we didn’t get a defenseman in that trade.
Murray has certainly made moves, and I think we can put some of Burke’s bad moves on him, too. Right now, David McNab and Rick Paterson are the saving grace of this organization.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Dec 7, 2009 12:59 AM PST up reply actions

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