Fun with Numbers—UPDATED!! :)

This Wednesday at Verizon Center in our nation's capital, the Ducks will begin a grueling 7 game road trip before returning home to Ponda Center on New Years Eve to face Chris Pronger and the Philadelphia Flyers. Once the horn sounds at the end of the game on December 31st and the sellout crowd is making it's way to the exits, we should have a good idea where our beloved team stands, because at that point, the first half of the season will be over. It's hard to believe, but we are only eight games away from number forty-one. Once we have reached the half-way point, we should know what kind of second half this team needs to put together to return to the postseason.

Personally, I like at least fifty points going into the second half, however, the Ducks don't particularly like giving me fifty points in those first forty-one games.

Ducks' First Half points since the lockout:

2005-2006: 43 points

2006-2007: 62 points

2007-2008: 43 points

2008-2009: 47 points

2009-2010: 39 points

Only once since the lockout have the Ducks given us a first half with fifty or more points, yet they have been able to make the playoffs four times in those five years. It is impeccably clear that this team traditionally performs well in the second half. Obviously the thirty-nine points earned in in the first half last season was to much of a hurdle to overcome in the second half, but we would only need a 2-6-0, 1-5-2, or 0-4-4 record in the next eight games to surpass last year's points total. Also, if we play .500, we would pass the 05/06 and 07/08 seasons in terms of points earned in the first half. With a 7-1-0 or 6-0-2 record, we can reach fifty points. The first and third scenarios are unlikely, but is .500 or 5-3 too much to ask for? That would put us at 44-46 points after the first half, which is a decent position to be in if we can count on a solid second half.

Ducks' Second Half points since the lockout:

2005-2006: 55 points

2006-2007: 48 points

2007-2008: 59 points

2008-2009: 44 points

2009-2010: 50 points

Obviously a repeat of the 2008-09 second half would not be helpful to the Ducks' playoff chances but any of the other second half performance would give us about 92-101 points which would put Anaheim in the hunt for the 6-8 seed.

The Ducks need to have a halfway decent road trip to put us in a position to make a strong second half push to the playoffs and I don't see why this team cannot go out and have a winning record in the final eight games of December. As far as I can see, every game is winnable: just to start off this trip we have a very interesting Capitals team that just got destroyed by the Rangers at Madison Square Garden and are showing some vulnerabilities. The Capitals, however, are on a 6 game losing streak and will looking to get back in the win column Wednesday. The second game, we have an absolutely god-awful New York Islanders team that owns a 5-17-5 record and only 15 points. Every game in my opinion is winnable and I don't think it is to crazy to ask for eight to ten points by December 31. Anyway, I hope the above rambling mess isn't too bad, and I look forward to the next eight games.

Note: the Ducks are averaging 1.09 points per game and if they keep up with the exact pace they are at right now, they will likely end up with around 88 points . . . a number that will probably be short of what is required to make the playoffs. Let's hope for a decent road trip and a decent second half push.

~UPDATE~

Well, it looks like I wasn't too unreasonable to think that we could get to 44-46 points by the end of the month. Sure, I would rather have 46-48 points, but I'll take the 44 (one point better than 2007-08 and 2005-06 and five points better than last year). Let's hope for at least 50 points in the next 41 games because ~94 points will put us right in the thick of things for the 8th seed (94 wouldn't have cut it last year though—Colorado got the 8th spot at 95 points). I would, however, like a repeat of the 2007-08 second half with 59 points in games 42-82 . . . 103 points should do the job! :)