*The Rumor Mill*: Blackhawks-Ducks Talking Wisniewski
by Daniel AC on Feb 7, 2010 9:56 AM PST
in Armchair GM
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PrintDANIEL:
The Daily Herald is reporting that the Blackhawks are trying to reacquire James Wisniewski from the Ducks. The Hawks might be dangling Cam Barker in order to pry Wiz out of Murray's cold dead hands. Wisniewski is apparently a fan favorite in Chicago. I for one would be glad to see him gone and would appreciate the more responsible and larger Barker. But that's just me. Moral of the story, Chicago might be crazy enough to take Wisniewski off our hands. Maybe we can throw in Todd Marchant and get Dustin Byfuglien too.
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Wisniewski is a solid fifth defenseman who would add an edge to the Hawks’ blue line – Rozner from the Herald article
So you essenitally gave up a 5-6 d-man. Yes, he was a personality, and easy to root for and love, but as for what was on the ice, I’m sorry, it just wasn’t that much. – SamFels from Second City Hockey last March
I hate how Chicago fans can like the guy and know exactly what he’s worth, but Anaheim are somehow confident in him as a Top 4 d-man. It’s kind of embarrassing.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Feb 7, 2010 10:10 AM PST reply actions
Oh, and Daniel
you could’ve teletyped this, not that you write in teletype format, because Rozner cites a team source saying that the clubs have been talking. It’s legit news.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Feb 7, 2010 10:13 AM PST reply actions
Please let it be true, please let it be true..
Getting rid of Wiz would just make my day. If only the we could find someone interested in Whitney too.
I hope this rumor is true.
I don’t see Wiz making any impact on the Ducks. Personally I think he’s lucky to be on the squad.
I hate how Chicago fans can like the guy and know exactly what he’s worth, but Anaheim are somehow confident in him as a Top 4 d-man. It’s kind of embarrassing
Great point and yes that is embarrassing.
es muy caliente.
We’re fans, yet we’re not confident in him at all. I’m assuming when he says Anaheim he means “Ducks Organization”.
"Just another Halo victory" - Rory Markas
Maybe both. If you check the OC Register boards you’d think the guy had never made a turnover in his life, and scored every time he shot the puck.
I agree. I think some Anaheim fans simply revere the fact that he plays hard, or that he’s one of those “heart and soul” players that blue collar folks are supposed to appreciate. That’s why they miss the fact that we’re using the guy in exactly the wrong way.
Normally, I’m the guy who defends Carlyle, but I don’t know what he’s doing with his defensive pairs. I honestly think that Wisniewski pouted so hard while he was in the bottom pair that Carlyle had to adjust all the pairings so that Wiz could get back with Scotty. Then he had to use the safe Brookbank to anchor the third pairing and bumped Eminger to the second pair to fill space with Whitney. Long story short, I think Wisniewski is the biggest problem on our blue line.
I meant to say Anaheim fans, because he’s a fan favorite. Some Chicago fans love him and feel he’s great, but it’s few and far between that want him with Campbell or Keith. He plays well with Niedermayer but so did Festerling last year. I don’t think there are too many organizations where Wisniewski is a Top 4 guy, not without a serious defenseman anchoring the pairing. We didn’t try him with the greatest defensemen this year, but we put him with guys with slightly more experience in Whitney and Boynton, and he really could only click with Niedermayer. He’s a quality penalty killer, but I really don’t see him as a Top 4 guy without Niedermayer.
Ducks fans seem to disagree. Even Sleek was saying that he wouldn’t hold it against Wisniewski for arguing he was a Top 4 defenseman at arbitration. I know our blueline sucks, but I just feel we should admit we’re asking a lot of what is a really good 5-6 penalty killing defenseman.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Feb 8, 2010 9:17 AM PST up reply actions
I really don’t know what the counterargument is that says that Wisniewski wasn’t a top-four guy in Anaheim, though. Surface stats count a lot in arbitration, and points-wise, plus-minus-wise, TOI-wise, there’s nothing there that points to him being an outright failure as a top-four guy for the Ducks, as seems to be the consensus here.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
The standard argument would be Niedermayer. Nieds was able to carry Festerling, but I don’t think we’d immediately call Festerling a Top 4 guy. I don’t think we even called Huskins a Top 4 guy by virtue of playing with Pronger.
I’m not saying it’s definitive or anything, but Wisniewski came from a place where the consensus was that he was a bottom pairing guy and this year, he’s had trouble with Boynton and Whitney, really only clicking with Niedermayer. I’m not saying he should be able to carry Festerling, but if he needs to be carried and if he can only carry his playing time with an exceptional pairing partner, I, personally, really just me here, cannot call him a Top 4 defenseman. I mean, Whitney can at least make a pairing with Brookbank or Eminger work, for all of Whitney’s failings. And you can say that’s a size thing, but I really think it’s just a Top 4 defenseman thing.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Feb 8, 2010 10:29 AM PST up reply actions
Maybe I’m confused as to what top-four means, then. If it’s just some measure about “reliability with Boynton”, then probably there’s very few top-four defenders in this league.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
reliability with Boynton
earns you an automatic Norris.
I was saying boo-urns.
by Floyd Gondoli on Feb 8, 2010 10:57 AM PST up reply actions
"reliability with Boynton"
haha. I thought you were actually really high on Boynton, but he may have just been a rabbit’s foot in your statistical analysis.
The problem could be how Carlyle sees Wisniewski. Maybe he’s never offered him a pairing where Wisniewski would have to carry his partner, and maybe Wisniewski would be great at it. But right now, Carlyle gave him a chance with two more experienced defensemen (whether equally good or worse) and Wisniewski couldn’t make it work. The only option was to put Wiz back with Niedermayer, where he’s admittedly good. Based on his time with Chicago and us, I don’t know if we can call on Wisniweski for the same minutes without Niedermayer, definitely not to Carlyle’s satisfaction. He’s a great special teams guy, and it’s tough to make this argument as an Olausson fan, but I don’t know if we can afford to pay him Top 4 money and then pay someone else more Top 4 money to carry him. It would be nice to put him with a rookie if he’s actually a Top 4 defenseman.
On the arbitration point below, arbitration gets ridiculously nasty in the NHL. A 5’11" guy who’s blown out his knee on multiple occasions and has trouble taking a hit or a block will have a lot of non-statistical issues. I personally think that’s the main reason Murray didn’t go through with arbitration; it would’ve gotten really ugly. Wiz has good stats for an offensive defenseman, but there’s a mountain of ability-to-play at 100% issues that he can’t refute.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Feb 8, 2010 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
But whether arbitration is the ultimate recourse or not, that’s essentially what Murray’s arguing against when next year’s Wiz salary gets set — it’s still important to think of the likely arbitration result even if it never happens (and I don’t know that I’d do it for Wiz — like I say, I think the result’s predictable enough).
Whether you want Wiz as a top-four for Anaheim is certainly debatable; whether or not Wiz has been doing that already this season seems less so.
And I dunno — even for almighty Niedermayer these days, it seems quite important who he partners with. Whitney even maybe moreso. I don’t know that Wiz is terribly unique in that aspect of partner-importance.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I think partner-importance matters for his usefulness to the team next year. Whitney is a long-term Duck and Carlyle failed to put Wiz there twice already. I don’t know that he’s proven that he can’t play with a Festerling or a Sbisa effectively, but the non-Niedermayer aspect is troublesome. He’s been through two organizations without legitimately climbing the depth chart and proving he can play with different defensemen in either, so he really can’t prove that his performance and his stats translate to next year’s team.
And there are certainly stats at arbitration, but they’re not hard to argue against with small offensive defenseman. You can really find small players anywhere. Bergeron puts up similar stats on a regular basis and he’s trapped with a 750K right now. And he’s played Top 4 time with Pronger and others. The stats will carry Wiz to a point, but I really think Murray just wants to get away with a small short term contract— he’s not trying to get the guy on a league minimum. I can’t imagine he doesn’t have the leverage to do that, really. This trade puts him in business with someone he’s a little more confident in, that he might not have to play the arbitration game with, whether he’s statistically more valuable or not.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Feb 8, 2010 11:38 AM PST up reply actions
Wiz has climbed Anaheim’s depth chart, whether you want to call it “legitimate” or not is your call.
The best way to avoid paying Wiz top-four money is to stop playing him top-four minutes — for whatever reason, no matter how badly he fits at it, no matter how illegitimate a move it is, Carlyle won’t be doing that — that’s really what’ll speak to Wiz’s next year’s salary, I think.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I remember him being inserted with Niedermayer last year, and then playing with Whitney when Beauchemin got healthy. I don’t remember a time where he had to really make it work on the bottom pairing. My bad. Chicago has a great blueline and we did last year, too, so if he couldn’t climb theirs and he climbed out of ours by carrying a rookie on the bottom pairing then maybe he’s proven he doesn’t belong in a bottom pairing everywhere.
When Wiz was playing at his worst this season, Carlyle had no trouble bumping him down to the third pairing. I think Wiz’s contract motivates Carlyle to play him a lot and count on him, but I don’t think it’s unthinkable for Carlyle. But I think, at the end of the day, Carlyle and Murray like the guy. They won’t maneuver on him during the season like that, not unless we’re out of the playoffs completely. But at arbitration, I don’t know if he would be treated any differently than Festerling or Bergeron for his I-played-minutes-with-a-Top-4-defenseman argument.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Feb 8, 2010 12:01 PM PST up reply actions
Bergeron’s too weird a story to be a comparable — got signed after the season started as a UFA on just an oddball deal.
Festerling isn’t really comparable production-wise, and there’d have to be a difference because of that.
I dunno — I just meant he had to move up the depth chart simply by virtue of Pronger and Beauchemin leaving town.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Oh. Well, there are plenty of guys who can climb into our Top 4 this year that way. But he didn’t climb the depth chart the old fashioned way, the way Carlyle always says he wants great players to climb— becoming the best fourth line center in the league, the best 5-6 defenseman in the league, then taking your rightful place. If he’d done that, no one could argue that he should be moved back to a bottom pairing.
I didn’t mean to imply that his salary should be in league with the 500K-750K’ers, just that in terms of a Bergeron, he’s not exactly a scarce commodity. There are a lot of small offensive defensemen, especially if you look at undrafted players. And they usually have to really dominate to succeed in the NHL. For however well Wiz is playing, he’s no Dan Boyle. In terms of Festerling, I was just saying that that ‘legitimized by playing with an all-time great’ argument can only take you so far, and it might even hurt you if you would have been good on a pairing with a rookie. So, I don’t think the “I’m a really good offensive defenseman” or the “I played on a Top 4 Scott Niedermayer” arguments would be any more helpful to him than they were for Bergeron or Niedermayer respectively. He’s a good player for other reasons, but I don’t think those two particular bells ring very loudly at arbitration.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Feb 8, 2010 12:37 PM PST up reply actions
woops
“Bergeron or Festerling respectively”
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Feb 8, 2010 12:39 PM PST up reply actions
No, but arbitration will look simply at:
He’s young.
He’s experienced.
He’s currently among the NHL’s top-40 scoring defensemen.
He’s minus-one on a team who’s defense is a collective minus-eighteen.
He’s twentieth in the league in TOI/gm for blueliners.
That seems like a winning hand in poker — not much there to say he hasn’t been successful at faking a top-four role or shouldn’t get paid for it.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I don’t see him as too different from where Bergeron was at the end of 05-06, having paid his dues and putting up great stats with an all-time great and on the power play. Bergeron was really good that year. But size and reliability are big on projecting a long career.
His numbers in one of two healthy seasons are good, but there should be some concern on the sample size after two short term contracts.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Feb 8, 2010 1:30 PM PST up reply actions
and i don’t think “arbitration will simply look at” can be said about a system whose leaked player evaluations have read like ad hominem message board attacks. The argument that Wisniewski’s best years are behind him at this point can be made much more bluntly than I would even attempt it. I don’t know if he’s shown enough to really counteract the talent evaluations the Ducks will pull come evaluation time. In fact, and I’ve said this since we got him, if you run video on this kid, it can get EXTREMELY embarrassing on play-to-play decision making.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Feb 8, 2010 1:33 PM PST up reply actions
Well, what they’ll look at and what they’ll make decisions based upon are two different things, sure — I messed up that distinction.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
oh, it’ll make it on Wiz’s side of course. I wasn’t saying that he won’t have a leg to stand on at arbitration, but stats can only do so much for little guys, at ANY level of hockey. Ryan Ellis goes 1st overall if he’s 5 inches taller last year. Wiz wasn’t afraid of arbitration last year, and he shouldn’t be this year but the same reasons to take him there will be on the table for Murray. I doubt either side has gained any leverage on the strength of this season.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Feb 8, 2010 1:58 PM PST up reply actions
My problems with Wisniewski also stem from the fact that he hasn’t been effective anywhere except with Niedermayer. In the situation where we do face arbitration with Wisniewski, which hopefull this trade will save us, I agree that statistically you’d have a hard time proving it. However, being a top 4 guy is so much more than that. It’s being responsible with your style of play and being responsible with the style of play of your partner. My argument against Wisniewski would stem from that fact. I know it’s sort of a rephrasing of Arthur’s position, but Wiz just can’t change his game and that makes him not a top 4 guy.
He keeps getting hurt by going down for shots, but instead of just clearing the shooting lane and letting Hiller see the shot all the way he continues to go down and limp off the ice. He played with Whitney, a pretty gifted offensive defender in his own right, but never learned how to really cover for his mistakes. I’d say the same when he was playing with Boynton. The third pairing isn’t supposed to generate offense, but instead of focusing on just being a solid 3rd pair with Boynton, he continued to jump into plays and work himself out of position. I’ve said for a while that the only reason the Niedermayer/Wisniewski pairing works is because Scotty is so good at adapting to his defensive partner and he can cover for Wiz better than anyone else.
In the end, playing as a top 4 guy and creating the stats doesn’t mean you actually have the ability to do it. Look at Cheechoo, he posted 50+ goals once, but he hasn’t looked like a top 6 guy since. Unless Wiz becomes a smarter player who can carry and adjust to his defensive partner, I don’t think the Ducks can afford to devote top 4 money to the guy.
I agree that statistically you’d have a hard time proving it.
And even if you did have those stats compiled somewhere, I think an arbiter would have a hard time listening to it.
Beauchemin is a guy who’s making top-four money now, and before this year he had hardly any success playing outside of Niedermayer’s Babysitting Agency. I don’t know that Scotty can be used effectively as an excuse not to pay a guy for his statistics.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
My only problem with Wisniewski is he’s not a forward and his name’s not Chris Kunitz. It’s essentially the same problem with Whitney.
Ohh! You guys!
This move ain’t going to happen.
http://www.anaheimcalling.com/2010/2/12/1308417/blackhawks-wave-goodbye-to-barker
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