Armchair GM: Signing Bobby Ryan
by Daniel AC on Apr 22, 2010 4:08 PM PDT
in Armchair GM
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DANIEL:
Disclaimer: I cannot think of a real reason to fire Carlyle, nor do I think that Carlyle will be fired by Bob Murray. Now that I've said that, it will probably happen. Still, until it does, I have no interest in firing Carlyle, so any analysis about signings, trades, or any other GM moves will be made in terms of Carlyle's system.
Well, the off-season has officially started for the Ducks. Playoffs are going well, and every team has a former Duck, encouraging. Still, Bob Murray has a big task ahead of him. If he doesn't want to be run out of town with pitchforks and torches, he needs to sign Bobby Ryan immediately. The OC Register's Ducks Blog reveals that the impending CBA negotiations at the end of the 2010-11 season may be a a key factor affecting contract negotiations. Before we get into how much I will be paying Bobby Ryan in my new role of Armchair GM, let's take a look at what Bobby has accomplished this year and over his career.
I like reading, so no fancy graphs. In 168 games, Bobby has 71 + 60 =131, is +21, and has 26 PP goals, meaning 37% of his goals come on the PP. That's pretty baller. It's no secret that Bobby was a key contributor of the RPG line that dominated in the playoffs a year ago. He was a stronger hitter then. It seemed more and more that Bobby wanted to rely on that wrist shot from between the circles and was less willing to go into the corners and make power moves to the net. The man can clearly find the back of the net. His numbers are better than Perry's were when he was gifted with that 5-year contract. Still, Bobby isn't as crazy as Perry. I can count on Perry to stand in front of the net, and more importantly, be an agitator. Bobby needs to play to his size and improve on some of those character demonstrations. He was wonderful on that line with Koivu and Sexton, but down the stretch, he seemed to be waiting for chances to come to him instead of creating his own. That shouldn't warrant top line money.
More importantly, if Bobby is going to continue to shoot from between the circles, he needs to do a better job of getting shots through and on net. Bobby had the most missed shots, 80, and blocked shots, 76, of any Anaheim forward. Those are only the even strength numbers. Granted each of those only puts him in about the top 25 in the league, but in a system that is all about puck control and stopping the rush the other way, missed and blocked shots can be a serious problem for the Ducks. It leads to the puck going the other way. It can also thoroughly undermine the sustained pressure that Carlyle likes.
Let's be real for a second. Bobby is more than capable of dominating a game, but I don't think he can take over a series like Getzlaf. He's not as disinterested in defense as Teemu Selanne, but he's not as active in his own zone as a Chipchura or a Marchant. Bobby is a very quiet goal scorer to me. You know he's going to score through the course of the season and a good amount of them will come in important situations. Alexandre Burrows, Mikael Samuelsson, Patrick Hornqvist, Jussi Jokinen, and Dustin Penner, are all guys I would put in the same category as Bobby Ryan. They are all 30-goal scorers that teams don't really gameplan to stop. Bobby could potentially be good anywhere. Placing him on multiple lines this year proved that. But I think it is also that dynamic ability that has allowed him to transform into a chameleon of sorts. He'll score, but that's it. It's difficult to gauge how impactful he really is. As I've said, the dominance shows up, but disappears as well. It could be youthful inconsistency, but I expect more from a guy drafted after Sidney Crosby if he expects to be paid as one of our top scorers.
Despite all of this, I recognize Bobby's potential. He keeps scoring, and with Selanne still considering retirement, we'll need PP production from somewhere. Signing Bobby Ryan is the same as making a key free agent acquisition. Especially since there aren't a lot of realistic options out there that will upgrade our scoring. I'm not going to offer Kovalchuk 10 million when I still need to sign a second line center, a Top 4 D-man, and a depth defenseman.
So here's my proposal. Bobby Ryan gets a 2 year $9 million deal that will pay him 4 million next year and 5 million in the second year. I know Bobby wants to be UFA next contract, but that's four years away and there's no telling what the CBA will bring. If there's a major change to cap rules, or anything else, we still have Getzlaf, Perry, Sexton, Beleskey and other options, that will make trading Bobby a little easier to take. He'll get the extra money to make him feel better about being moved and then another shot at an RFA offer sheet. The 4.5 cap hit is very manageable, and it's not like he's being insulted. He'll be the third highest paid forward on the team, which is appropriate because he's the third most valuable forward to us. Ok, fourth, but Koivu isn't getting this kind of money. His contract is next.
Bobby is going to get a raise. My other option in this is to go for the 4 year deal he wants and bring down the cap hit, but until this rotation of veterans finally settles into some retirements, we need to keep a little bit of flexibility. Bobby will take this money and play for more. He still needs to prove he's a franchise player who will do everything, not one of those invisible 30 goal scorers who is only about his production, and not about the intangibles that bring victory. If he does, he'll get a much longer and more expensive contract. If he isn't interested in the two year, I'll start trade discussions. Then I'll call Alexander Frolov's agent.
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I know I'm a huge Bobby fan boy
but I really don’t feel like he’s an invisible goal scorer. I think he proved himself to be an incredibly valuable member of the team this year, especially given how often he was shuffled around to different lines. Perry and Getzlaf only ever played on the top line, while Bobby played well wherever he was penciled in.
I also think that Bobby may have been hitting less to protect his longevity during a contract year. We can vilify him for that or not, but I also don’t think that everyone on the top line necessarily needs to be cracking heads either. Getz and Perry seem better suited to this role while Bobby finds creative ways to keep puck possession.
You mention that he has a high number of blocked shots but I also think he does a better job at cycling than either Getzlaf or Perry. He seems to get the puck to his man on the cycle and dig it out of the corners better than either of those two and he anticipates the puck well on the cycle. I don’t have any numbers to back up any of this mind you, and it might all be colored by my total man-crush on him, but that’s what I think.
by PhantomPretender on Apr 22, 2010 5:54 PM PDT reply actions
Valuable and invisible are different. Pahlsson was valuable, but his impact wasn’t on the score sheet. I feel that nobody really thinks about stopping Bobby Ryan. I don’t think Bobby is an impact player. He’s no the person on our team that other clubs plan on stopping. I think everyone comes into Ducks games looking to stop Getzlaf and Perry. My proof of that will be the fact that those two don’t get broken up or moved around and Bobby does. Teams know that our primary scoring tandem is Getzlaf and Perry. Then we move people around that.
By calling Bobby invisible I’m simply saying that all you really get from him is scoring. As fans we notice that because scoring is the most high profile thing you can do. But the truth is that Getzlaf and Perry do grind better and they mentally wear down opponents. AND they remain serious scoring threats. Bobby usually seems to be only one of those at a time.
As for the cycling. I don’t think he cycles better than either of them, but then again I’m trying to get him to take more money over a shorter contract. What I will say is that he had almost 40 more blocked and missed shots than either of them. Even if he does hold the zone well, blocked and missed shots are essentially turnovers. So, at best it’s a wash. Bobby can’t be given Perry and Getzlaf money. Not only because it would ruin our cap situation, but also because he’s simply not worth it. He needs to prove a little bit more. Franchises can’t afford to keep paying kids for potential. For all we know, Bobby’s soft play to preserve his longevity will continue once he gets paid. Bobby, just like Getzlaf and Perry, is a better player when he’s cracking heads. We need to start letting them be themselves.
I dunno
when you look at numbers, Bobby has better stats at this point than when Perry signed his contract.
I think it’s hard for teams to even know here the hell Bobby is going to play, much less develop a plan against him. As for the shots, aren’t we always complaining that Getzlaf doesn’t take enough shots? It seems incongruent to vilify one guy on the top line for not shooting and vilify the other guy for shooting too much.
I think Bobby’s versatility makes him more valuable than Perry or Getz. I don’t think you can plug Perry or Getz onto the second or third lines and get production like you get from Bobby. I guess it’s hard for me to write him off as invisible because he wasn’t given the chance to consistently play on a line this year. He was juggled pretty much constantly. And last year, when he got to play extensively with a healthy Perry and Getz, he dominated.
Call it difference of opinion, but I think Bobby is more valuable to this team than Perry.
by PhantomPretender on Apr 22, 2010 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Bobby Ryan is more important than Corey Perry? I think that’s your man crush talking. Versatility in a forward isn’t always the best thing. I would make the argument, that getting Ryan off the top line, and away from top level defensive competition every night, contributed to his numbers. More importantly, the reason why I call Bobby an invisible scorer is that he doesn’t give us much else. He might have the occasional big hit, but he doesn’t dominate a game the way Getzlaf can. He doesn’t get under the other teams skin the way Perry does. He just scores goals. That’s it. That’s nice, but that’s it.
I think you are attributing Getzlaf’s dominance last year to Bobby Ryan. He’s a great goal scorer to be sure, but he’s just a goal scorer. Let’s also say that the minute you move Getzlaf off the top line, then that line is no longer the top line. The line that Getzlaf skates on IS the top line, because he is the best player on our team. Perry might not have scored as many goals as Bobby Ryan, but he did finish with more points. Twelve more points to be exact. That implies that Bobby might be putting the puck in the net, but he isn’t creating as much offense as Perry is. Perry’s intangibles rate much higher than Bobby Ryan’s. Ryan Getzlaf is simply a superior talent. Bobby Ryan needs to recognize that he isn’t the top forward on our team. If he expects to get paid like he is, he won’t be a Duck next year.
At some point
doesn’t the ability to agitate become a negative if your costing the team by putting them in situations where they’re shorthanded or fighting when you shouldn’t be? You’ve got to be able to draw penalties without taking one of your own.
I never questioned Getz as the most important player on the team. You said that I’m attributing some of Bobby’s success to the play of Getz. Couldn’t it be argued that the same is true for Perry? Yes, Perry had more points this year but he’s also a few years older than Bobby and has more experience. He also benefitted by playing almost all of his minutes with the best player on the team (as long as he was healthy) while Bobby still produced on a variety of lines.
I fully admit I love me some B-Ry. He may not be as good as I think he is, but I also don’t think he’s as invisible as you do.
by PhantomPretender on Apr 23, 2010 8:01 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
First, my point about Bobby’s blocked and missed shots isn’t that he takes too many, it’s what happens with all the shots he’s taking. Yes, I’d like Getzlaf to shoot more. I’m not critiquing Bobby for taking shots; I’m critiquing the quality of shot that he is taking. Basically, I’m saying if you’re going to shoot that much, you’ve got to get them on net.
I think you can’t say the sam for Perry if for no other reason than he still found a way to score when Getz was out of the line up. He also managed to create offense without Getzlaf there. By saying Getzlaf and to an extent Perry generated success, I was arguing that Bobby didn’t have to play against the top defensive tandem when he wasn’t on the ice with them. So, separating him from Getzlaf and Perry meant he faced a lower quality of player when he was on the ice.
Finally, when you talk about agitation being a double-edged sword, I completely agree. However, I would contend that it’s a risk reward scenario that is always worth it, otherwise teams wouldn’t keep their agitators. Sure, Perry takes bad penalties. He can also cause so much anger that teams start to make stupid plays. It’s almost like the inverse of Ice Man in Top Gun. He’ll harass you until you do something stupid, and then it’s over. Maybe he won’t get all the penalty calls, but Perry bothers teams, bothers goalies, scores, and drops the gloves when he has to.
The reason I call Bobby Ryan invisible is that all I really see him doing is scoring. If you want to argue that he cycles well, thats true. However, a lot of players on this team cycle well, and a lot of players around the league do as well. Bobby is a fantastic scorer, but that’s it. He doesn’t bring anything else to the table really. Perhaps it’s better to call him one-dimensional than invisible. Although, he can score in a couple of different ways. He is still a one-dimensional player who can only be counted on to score.
Ah...
You got my hopes up. I saw singing and Bobby Ryan in the title and for a second, I thought that Murray had done something useful.
wow daniel and im a bad armchair scout? seriously signing him to a 2 year deal? he wants needs and deserves a long-term deal. he’s a valuable member of our team led us in goals scored 35 and also was the best rookie forward last year. has the strength and size to dominate every night? honestly dude? scoring 30 or more goals in your first 2 seasons in this league means something special
Well, I’m not an armchair scout, I’m an armchair GM. That’s an important difference. I have to make decisions that are good for the organization. Honestly, a healthy Lupul might be almost interchangeable with Bobby Ryan. And Bobby doesn’t dominate. That’s the problem. This year he became less and less physically dominant. But much like with Wisniewski, his errors seemed to be overlooked because the fans love him.
Two years is a good business decision. This isn’t NHL ‘10. I can’t just throw money around. The purpose of this post is to make viable decisions as a GM. The CBA will end at the end of next year. Ideally, I’d like to sign Bobby to a one year deal and then give him a long term deal after the new CBA is enacted. Then I’ll have a better idea of what kind of flexibility I’ll have under the new cap policies. Sure, giving Bobby Ryan a 6 year 36 million dollar contract sounds easy. But we have problems on D, almost no options with experience for second line center, and our best options to fill those are going to have to get a little overpaid since we weren’t a playoff team, and we aren’t seen as a great hockey market.
Bobby Ryan doesn’t want a long term deal. He wants a deal to carry him to UFA, that’s only 4 years. I’m sorry, I don’t consider that long term. I think 6 years is more in the neighborhood of long term. What do you want me to do? Give 6 years to Volchenkov, Martin, and Bobby? That would eat up all of our cap before we ever looked at Niedermayer, Selanne or Koivu. We’d be giving up Blake or Lupul for nothing just so we could squeeze into the cap a little more comfortably.
Finally, I don’t think scoring 30 goals in your first two seasons is as special as it used to be. Especially when you realize that Bobby is settling more and more for shots from just outside the circles and getting a lot of them blocked or not on net. Bobby doesn’t dominate the way people think he does. He might be hard to handle, but I wouldn’t call him dominating. In an NHL that is geared towards increased scoring, it doesn’t surprise me that rookies are having easier and easier transitions, and scoring more and more goals. I mean, Bobby only had ten more and 9 more points than John Tavares, and Matt Duchesne. Two guys who jumped straight to the NHL without the AHL experience that Bobby had. Should they be given long term deals as well.
As I’ve said before, this isn’t a video game. There’s a CBA negotiation on the horizon and we have way more concerns than Bobby Ryan. When there’s a clearer future in Anaheim, we can consider signing Bobby longer, but right now. This deal makes a lot of sense. I know Anaheim fans are falling all over themselves for Bobby, but he’s just goals. There’s no telling what’s going to happen when we pay this kid. So let’s give him some money and see what happens.
Yikes
In what world are Lupul and B-Ry interchangeable? Isn’t there a reason Loops has been traded a bunch of times?
Bobby is a fairly defensively responsible forwrad (he doesn’t give up on plays) and he draws a ton of penalties. I think you’ve been down on him since he admitted he doesn’t like to skate backwards.
I think Bobby has the potential to domintae. In the first game of the Olympics his line was by far the best. I really think he’s still trying to figure out his role since he has been jerked around a lot.
But damn, Bobby is a much more dynamic player than Lupul. No question.
by PhantomPretender on Apr 23, 2010 1:24 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Dynamic, not necessarily. I think what you get with both of them is a guy who’s going to score 30-35 goals. Lupul looked great on that top line before his back went out. Honestly, Lupul is much nastier than Bobby too. Lupul’s time in Philly was like doing time in hockey prison. He came back way more hardcore than he was when he went in. In terms of offense, I can get almost the same out of either player. Especially if Lupul is playing on the top line. I think you’re thinking of Lupul when he got traded from Anaheim and not Lupul as he is now. A healthy Lupul might surprise next year.
If Bobby is still struggling to find who he is, that just proves my point further. We don’t need to get seriously tied up in this contract right now. Bobby Ryan wouldn’t be insulted by this contract. In fact, I think he’d recognize that it’s mutually beneficial. There’s no way that Selanne and Niedermayer go another two years. Our D prospects will have developed and well have a better sense of where we are as an Organization in the post Selanne-Niedermayer years. At that point, Bobby will have a better idea of who he is. And he’ll be able to sign the type of long term deal Anaheim fans think he wants, or to pressure us into moving him.
I did read the article
And I think you’re harping too much on what the writer assumes Bobby wants. Because Bobby never says he doesn’t want a long term deal. Not even close. In fact, he says this:
"I’d love for a long-term deal. I think everybody knows that. But I think it’ll end up being the opposite for now."
You also say that Bobby wouldn’t be offended to not sign a longer deal but again you’ve got nothing to back that up. We know that the team hasn’t treated him well in the past (with Burke threatening to trade him and them keeping him in the minors) but you insist that he wouldn’t hold it against him. You basically keep assuming you’ll know how Bobby will respond in spite of a) his own comments and b) the way he’s been treated by the team in the past.
You keep harping on the fact that Bobby doesn’t want a long-term deal. I guess maybe we disagree on what long-term means. I think 4 years to UFA is long-term. Apparently you don’t think it is. Maybe it’s because I come from baseball where a four year deal seems like an eternity.
As for Loops vs. Bobby:
In 2010, when Lupul was apparently badass, he went 10-4=14 over 23 games for a .609 PPG average. Loops was +3 overall.
In 2010, Bobby went 35-39=64 for a .790 PPG average. Bobby was +9 overall.
Over their careers, they break down as follows:
Loops is 112-113=225 over 395 games for a .570 PPG average and is a career -42.
B-Ry is 71-60=131 over 168 games for a .780 PPG average is a career +21.
I’m not trying to be a pain in the ass, but the stats just don’t back up your assertion that they’re essentially the same player. And as for missed shots, Bobby’s career shot percentage is 4.4 percent higher (15.2 vs. 10.8). So yeah, I think Bobby is a better player than Loops. For sure.
by PhantomPretender on Apr 23, 2010 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions
I should add that
I took all of my stats from Hockey Reference.
Lupul:http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/l/lupuljo01.html
B-Ry: http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/r/ryanbo01.html
by PhantomPretender on Apr 23, 2010 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions
First, I don’t think that 4 years is a long term deal. I think of it as mid range.
As for being treated poorly, Burke did what Burke did, and Murray isn’t Burke. Although, sometimes I wish he was. You have to be able to recognize with whom you are dealing and let the little things go. Murray hasn’t done anything with Bobby other than, apparently, not give him the contract he wants.
Also, I’m not making assumptions based on what the author says, I’m making observations based on what Bobby said. Specifically
I don’t think it’ll be a long term. I think it’ll be shorter than Getzy and Pears just to get us to there and then the way the cap goes, I think it’s going to affect a lot of guys going forward and I think I’m right on the bubble there being a year before the CBA is up and where it’s going to affect me.
Even if Bobby wants one, it sounds like he recognizes he isn’t going to get one. So whether or not he wants it, I think we can agree he said he won’t be getting one.
Back to stats. First I’ll say, that my point about stats not being the only reason to give people money still stands. Lupul might not be as good as Bobby Ryan, but he can do more than Bobby does, like kill penalties. Without getting into stats like, Goals scored per 60 mins played, Goals for the team per 60, Goals Against per 60 and adjusted +/-, I can look at that stat line and say that while he might not have finished with as many assists as Bobby Ryan, but he was on pace to score 5 less goals than Bobby without counting the final 13 games of the season. Also, Bobby was getting early time with the top line and was getting almost 2 more minutes in TOI than Lupul before Lupul got hurt.
Based on ice time, Lupul was averaging 2 goals per 60 minutes played to Bobby Ryan’s 1.2. Lupul’s Goals For per 60 was 3.31 to Bobby’s 3.4. Not identical, but again, Bobby Ryan was playing with better linemates for most of the year. Finally, Goals Against per 60 Bobby Ryan was 2.75, and Lupul was only 2.27, almost half a goal better. Lupul is a much better defensive player than Bobby Ryan. Don’t forget the time he spent in Edmonton that practically ruined his +/- stat. Maybe Bobby Ryan is better, but Lupul is more than a serviceable replacement if it turns out we can’t afford Bobby.
All these stats are from behind the net, which is linked on the front page of the blog. I’m not a stats veteran myself and there’s a chance I misread some of these. I’m not trying to be an asshole either, I’m just trying to keep the conversation going. I believe that I came up with a very viable option for the Ducks and Bobby Ryan. He’ll get a lot of money. The organization will have flexibility to give him more in a few years, and if not he’ll still be young enough that he can get moved and have a good experience someplace else or entertain offer sheets. I mean. The worst case scenario for him when he entertains new offer sheets is that he gets all the money he wants, from another team or us.
My issue is that you said
rather emphatically:
Bobby Ryan doesn’t want a long term deal.
And you also sort of condescendingly challenged people to read the article, which in fact directly contradicted your assertion with a direct quote from Bobby saying he DOES want a contract extension.
The advanced stats do appear to even the comparison between Bobby and Loops more. Obviously our own biases have a lot to do with the way we perceive the situation. I still think that not singing Bobby to a four-year deal is a mistake. Time will only tell how everything is born out.
by PhantomPretender on Apr 23, 2010 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions
But I don't want to fight anymore
Lets just agree that the Dodgers suck :-)
by PhantomPretender on Apr 23, 2010 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions
If by suck you mean, are in desperate need of a pitcher who’s WHIP stat is less than 1. Then I agree. That offense is just going to waste.
Also, as I said, I didn’t see it as fighting. I suppose since I coach debaters, I sometimes look at being right as more of a win/loss situation and miss the value of discourse. I was just trying to present the alternative information as best as I could. I apologize if I seemed condescending, but I started to feel like people weren’t reading some of my major arguments about the stats and the contract situation. It’s not that I"m not a Bobby fan and that I don’t want to sign him long term. It’s just that if I was a GM, I think that this would be my starting negotiating point. That’s something that should be clearer for the next post. I think there are just too many outside circumstances for Murray to give into the 4 year deal.
It's really funny
because as oodles of pre-season literature was fawning over the Dodgers, all I could think to myself was:
Who the hell is going to pitch for them? They lost Wolf and Garland, two of their major innings-eaters. Kershaw has electric stuff but hasn’t mastered it yet and Kuroda is either awesome or awful. Billingley also struggles with consistency.
I must say I’m loving my Padres in first and I’m going to enjoy it while I can.
by PhantomPretender on Apr 23, 2010 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Wolf was a good pick-up
last season and they should have done more to hold on to him. Then the Padres poaching Garland probably also surprised the,
by PhantomPretender on Apr 23, 2010 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions
they should have done more to hold on to him
Doesn’t sound unique to last offseason. :-)
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Apr 23, 2010 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions
As a Padre fan
I love the complete disarray that’s about to grip the Dodgers franchise. Believe you me, the divorce is going to seriously hurt that team. And with some of their younger kids approaching arb and FA, things are gonna get ugly.
by PhantomPretender on Apr 23, 2010 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions
I hope not. I think they can keep a lot of the players in that line up. Namely, Martin, Kemp, Ethier and Loney. DeWitt will get better. We do need to improve our cupboard and get an ace pitcher from somewhere though. Hey Arthur, when does Lincecum go UFA?
When he hits the FA
it’s going to be total insanity. He’ll easily top A-Rod’s deal, at least year-to-year.
by PhantomPretender on Apr 23, 2010 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions
No way
His stuff is so much more electric. He’s obviously figured out some weird biomechanical quirk that allows him to generate an ungodly amount of velocity from such a compact frame. His delivery also doesn’t fall prey to many common problems as he doesn’t put much torque on his elbow like other pichers (see Peavy, Jake) do. He’ll go a long way to extending his career by throwing more change-ups.
by PhantomPretender on Apr 23, 2010 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions
He always explains it as something his father invented based on their wingspan, the length of their torso and their frame. So it was being honed a generation before him.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Apr 23, 2010 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Zito’s value really came down to some good playoff performances. He was never better than Mulder in that rotation.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Apr 23, 2010 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions
I think after this contract. Or maybe the year after. He was arbitration eligible this year, and I think we signed him to a two year? I think 2013.
But if you want him, you can probably have him for nothing. They generally give up pitching for nothing.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Apr 23, 2010 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions
You must be pissed about Buster Posey
I can’t believe that have Molina and Whiteside instead of letting the kid play. But that’s what you get with Bruce Bochy. He hates playing the rooks. Very Carlyle of him.
by PhantomPretender on Apr 23, 2010 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions
actually still holding on to my Pierzynski anger.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Apr 23, 2010 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions
I was so happy
when Bochy jumped ship to the Giants. He really is terrible at developing young talent. It’s a wonder to me that Lincecum was ever allowed to debut.
by PhantomPretender on Apr 23, 2010 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions
In terms of arguing
I’m much the same as you. I hate to lose :-)
But yeah, I think the Ducks are in a tough spot with Bobby. I’m really not too familiar with NHL history. What are the benefits/perils of waiting for the CBA?
by PhantomPretender on Apr 23, 2010 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, there are more benefits for the team probably than the player. But there’s a chance that the amount of years required for service before going UFA could change. So if Bobby waits, his two year deal might still make him a UFA. But there’s a chance that teams will be able to move money now, or trade their cap space. I.E. what if the Ducks could trade their second round pick for 1-2 million dollars worth of cap space, or if the Oilers wanted to move a contract they could include cash to offset player cost. Then small market teams could get more high profile players without paying full price. I mean, I’m not a lawyer or anything, but a lot of things could happen that would affect how easy it is to move a contract. In that situation, keeping Bobby could become easier/harder depending on the cap and what our team looks like.
there’s a great book called Net Worth which describes the modern NHLPA and why Bobby Orr’s relationship with Alan Eagleson kept the NHL players’ union in the Dark Ages, basically a modern WWF with a smoke and mirrors pension. As such, the union is the weakest of any professional sport. In the 90s lockout, they sold out the youth by extending restricted free agency into absurdity. Players backlashed with holdouts and outrageous offer sheets, but generally, when there’s a CBA negotiation, the players are going to lose in some significant way. So, there are only perils for Bobby.
I disagree with Daniel that there is any way that keeping Bobby becomes significantly harder. His RFA period may shrink if the players make some other concession— the league is getting younger —but players are still at the point where they will get screwed again. Thus the scrambling over hiring a new and proper president.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Apr 23, 2010 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions
I wonder how this might impact negotiations
and whether or not players in similar situations to Bobby will attempt to use this as leverage for longer contracts.
by PhantomPretender on Apr 23, 2010 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions
well, I think it impacted contract negotiations with Getzlaf/Perry, where they didn’t want to be having this discussion after the RFA period was extended, but players will only do something outrageous if they’ve lost all faith in the NHLPA. That might be happening, but I dont’ think it will be as outrageous as it once was. Players were really bitter back then. And with good reason. I think Scott Stevens was the first successfully offer sheeted free agent in league history. Hell, if wrestlers formed a proper union TODAY, they wouldn’t be far behind the NHLPA
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Apr 23, 2010 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions
As an impartial Bobby observer, I read it as him playing the fan card and talking about wanting to stay and also being the company man and saying he understands why he would be limited to a short deal.
I would say, as someone who’s watched this budget team screw players over the year, NO ONE is happy with the response, “Let’s not sign a long term deal this close to the CBA. What if it opens up all new ways for me to screw you?” That’s basically the moment Paul Kariya checked out. They told him he’d be on a trial contract, then pay raise time came, and they were like, “woops! new CBA says we own you until you’re 30” I wouldn’t take any comments regarding the CBA at face value.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Apr 23, 2010 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions
I should note that I was shocked when I recently found out Bobby is not only a cat person, but a TWO cat person. shocking. SHOCKING!
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Apr 23, 2010 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions
There’s no way that Selanne and Niedermayer go another two years.
You’d be surprised. Wanna bet on that?
There's nothing to see here. And nothing gazes back at me.
I really want to bet you on this. You seem so confident and yet, I know something you don’t :]
There's nothing to see here. And nothing gazes back at me.
What kind?
Just putting it out there, Teemu wants a 2 year deal. Whether he gets it or not remains to be seen.
There's nothing to see here. And nothing gazes back at me.
Even if he wants one, that would still carry him only to the end of this contract that I “offered” Bobby. His contract would still be up at the end of those two years, and so would Bobby’s freeing up a little extra cash to give Bobby a raise. I love Selanne, but I don’t know if I want to see him be Mark Rechhi. I want to remember all the amazing things I saw that man do.
The only reason Teemu signed a two year deal last time was so he could play in another Olympics. What benefit would he receive from signing a 2 year deal again?
well he went from preaching about the importance of one year deals at this stage in his career, only to sign a 2 year deal that carried him into the Olympics. Not really hard to infer as much
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Apr 23, 2010 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions
He also implied he’d retire after they won the cup. “I always wanted to retire on top.” His implications seem meaningless. I’m not begging anyone to believe me, I’m just warning you not to rule a two year deal out
There's nothing to see here. And nothing gazes back at me.
yeah, but everyone says they want to retire on top. Not everyone says that at this point in their career, one year deals make the most sense so they can re-evaluate things after every season.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Apr 23, 2010 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m not discounting that. I’m going on solely what I’ve been told. Like I said, I don’t really expect everyone to believe me. Everyone’s a skeptic around here. All I’m trying to do is point out the fact that he wants a two year deal.
There's nothing to see here. And nothing gazes back at me.
tough to be an insider, I guess. I’ll look into your cookie.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Apr 23, 2010 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m not saying that I don’t believe you, I just find it hard to understand why Teemu would be interested in a two year deal.
As was I, but I don’t question the info I get. It’s been dead on since day one. Keep in mind, just because Teemu wants two years doesn’t mean Murray will give it to him. I’m not sure what will happen with that, but I’d like to see Murray make the deal.
By the way, I like oatmeal raisin and snickerdoodle. No import should be necessary as I have a 15 minute drive to Ponda
There's nothing to see here. And nothing gazes back at me.
Dude, my mom makes an oatmeal cookie with raisins AND cranberries. That shit might be more addicting than wafflehouse hashbrowns and the original cranberry crack cookies COMBINED!!!
by Daniel AC on Apr 24, 2010 9:09 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I had Waffle House hash browns
for the first time when I saw the Ducks against the Yotes a few months ago, and OMG! the hash browns are ridonculous! Triple order with cheese and shrooms!
by PhantomPretender on Apr 24, 2010 11:58 PM PDT up reply actions
well, you should avoid talking about it as though it is. it makes you sound like a crazy person.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Apr 25, 2010 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with Daniel though that he needs more experience.. especially since they have been talking about grooming him to be a center… which is going to be tough because hes a shooter and not much of a passer… if he becomes a center he needs to start playing better defense to warrant the 5-6 mill a year contract.. 2 year 9 mill is fair enough.. thats more than versteeg
I just feel he still has a lot to learn. fans see he scores some pretty awesome goals but they dont notice the mistakes he makes. I just feel that the locker room is comparing each others salaries.. Im sure bobby feels that he did better than perry and it seems like they are chasing each other for the goal lead the last two seasons but perry came out and lived up to the money he was getting paid. He played every game, and scored a career high in points (with some time away from getz). Perry did what he had to do so bobby has to do the same.
Bobby needs to take a page out of some of the other players books. he needs to work better with carlyle. Bobby can be moved from line to line but he needs to start playing two way hockey. he needs to be more aggressive and he needs to start listening to the veterans more on the team. He has a lot to learn and he needs to shut up and do it.
Bobby is good but HE CAN BE BETTER and until he becomes a more well rounded player he should not be in the 5 mill range. 2 years 9 mill is fair..
There's some flaws in your logic
You say Pers played weel without Getz but Perry played with Getz every game Getz was healthy. Bobby did not. Bobby scored more goals, without the Getz matching, and somehow Perry is better?
I’ve never heard anyone talk about moving B-Ry to center. I could be wrong, but I’d love to see a link about this.
I also don’t think Perry is better defensively than Bobby. Can’t get to any stats right now, but I’d be interested to see a plus minus comp.
Look, Perry is very good. So is Bobby. Sure, bobby can get better. But is it really fair from Bobbys standpoint to not pay him what’s Perry got? Look at the numbers. Bobby has better numbers at this point in his career than Perry did. If you shaft him on the money now you’re going to definitely sour him on the team. For the long term health of the team, I think you’ve got to go 4 years 18 to 19 mil.
by PhantomPretender on Apr 23, 2010 1:54 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Dynamic, not necessarily. I think what you get with both of them is a guy who’s going to score 30-35 goals. Lupul looked great on that top line before his back went out. Honestly, Lupul is much nastier than Bobby too. Lupul’s time in Philly was like doing time in hockey prison. He came back way more hardcore than he was when he went in. In terms of offense, I can get almost the same out of either player. Especially if Lupul is playing on the top line. I think you’re thinking of Lupul when he got traded from Anaheim and not Lupul as he is now. A healthy Lupul might surprise next year.
If Bobby is still struggling to find who he is, that just proves my point further. We don’t need to get seriously tied up in this contract right now. Bobby Ryan wouldn’t be insulted by this contract. In fact, I think he’d recognize that it’s mutually beneficial. There’s no way that Selanne and Niedermayer go another two years. Our D prospects will have developed and well have a better sense of where we are as an Organization in the post Selanne-Niedermayer years. At that point, Bobby will have a better idea of who he is. And he’ll be able to sign the type of long term deal Anaheim fans think he wants, or to pressure us into moving him.
I think Bobby isn’t going to get Perry money. He needs to be a grown up and recognize what it means to play in the NHL where money has to be moved in order to keep teams together. Contracts can’t be limited to just statistics. If that were the case we’d have to give Wiz 3.5-4 million and I think we all agree he’s not worth it. Bobby doesn’t bring much more to the table besides scoring. He’s expressed that he doesn’t want a long term deal, read the article from the link in my post. If that’s the case. This deal makes the most sense. He gets paid, 4 next season, and 5 after the new CBA. He gets the chance to play for more money when our money situation is finally straightened out. Or, worse case scenario, he can probably pressure us into a trade or sign an offer sheet for more money when the two years are up.
I know everyone wants to sign him long term, but I don’t know how feasible that is right now. Especially, if he’s not interested in signing long term.
FWIW
I looked up the +/- for B-Ry and Pers:
Bobby:
2009 +/- = +9
Career +/- = +21
Perry
2010 +/- = Even
Career +/- = 35
by PhantomPretender on Apr 23, 2010 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions
deceptive! I’m tempted to ban +/- from this site. I demand our readership learn to read Corsi’s!
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Apr 23, 2010 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Lol
I admitted I was a stats noob! I can easily understand +/- !!!
by PhantomPretender on Apr 23, 2010 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Can you give a Corsi primer
and where one might find these?
by PhantomPretender on Apr 23, 2010 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Gabe at Behind The Net has a lot of advanced stats. Corsi is a measure of shot differential in terms of all shots directed at the net, which would include blocked shots, missed shots, etc. It’s a pretty accurate measurement of time of possession. You’d have to bring in more specifics than the basic rating as Corey and Bobby played time together and are neck in neck in terms of Missed Shots (though I’m not sure where they sit in terms of shots that actually turned the play over to the opposition— my eyes remind me that Bobby may be guiltier there), but for a lot of players, +/- really only tells the story of whether or not you were unlucky enough to get scored on.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Apr 23, 2010 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions
don’t feel bad about being a Noob there. Most everyone is a noob in terms of advanced hockey stats. But as everyone seems to be trying to make a Sabermetric-ally conclusive point these days, it’s time to start talking WHIP.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Apr 23, 2010 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Baseball
is so much easier to measure than Hockey. It’s so much more objective.
That said, I love hockey more, but it’s easier to prove an argument with baseball numbers.
by PhantomPretender on Apr 23, 2010 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions
baseball is nowhere near as fluid; much easier to graph. And I only prefer baseball numbers because you can rather emotionlessly say a guy is worthless, unlike NHL evaluation, where arbitration devolves into character assassination. I wonder if I can file an amicus brief for Wisniewski’s ARB.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Apr 23, 2010 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions
This is very true
My Big Board
Lead organizer of the annual 7 round live mock draft at MtD and Moderator on Anaheim Calling
by TheAngelsColts on Apr 23, 2010 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah and you only need to do well 30% of the time to make the hall of fame.
by Newport Rebel on Apr 24, 2010 3:26 AM PDT up reply actions
yeah yeah.. maybe my words got tied up.. the point i was trying to make was that perry got paid because he showed he was a solid player game in and game out.. yes there are ups and downs but perry lets just say you can expect 30 goals/year from him year in and year out.. but he has been in the league for a few years now and you know what your getting.
Bobby not so much.. He is still making crucial mistakes and still plays with to much emotion. You know when bobby is not feeling it and you know when he is. He needs to learn some control 2 years should do it and then sign him to a longer term.
You cant tie money up with long term deals look at the blackhawks. I think Daniel has nailed it on the nose.
by CUnitSoldier on Apr 24, 2010 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions
okay i know it aint a game but you cant just insult the kid by giving him a 2 year deal… he wants long-term in my idea
here’s my idea….
1 Bobby 5 mil 5 years
2 Koivu 4 mil, selanne 2 mil, soctt 5 mil, volchenkov 5 mil
3 get rid of wiz lupul eminger 8 mil in space
1) Bobby has said he’s pretty sure there isn’t a long term deal on the horizon. So, I’m guessing 5 years at 5 millions isn’t going to happen. I will point out that you are paying him only 1/2 a million more than the cap hit I recommended.
2) Are these all one year contracts? If so, there’s no way Koivu and Volchenkov sign. Both of them are looking for longer deals, albeit for different reasons. Still, I don’t see either of them signing one year deals, and if Bobby has said no to a long term deal, we have to be careful about how many years we give Koivu. If he’s winding down, we’ll need to be able to move his 4 million. Also, this might be Selanne’s last year and he might want more than the peanuts he’s been taking from us for these past 3 years or so. Finally, don’t insult Scott Niedermayer by paying Lubo more than him. Scott gets more than Lubo, PERIOD. That means 5.5 minimum, but probably another 6 million.
3) we can let Wiz walk on an offer sheet, but how are we going to get rid of Lupul and Eminger? Lupul is coming off a major injury and Eminger was awful last year. A desperate team might take Eminger for that 1.5 hit, but nobody is going to take a flyer on a forward owed 4.25 for the next 3 years who has had a back problem like Lupul’s. He’s probably not going anywhere.
i meant a long-term deal for volchenkov and im fine with the idea of paying scott more than lubo but i just think lubo is a better d-man at this stage of their careers
maybe scott is a better d-man overall but lubo is better right now when he’s younger plus i dont like the idea of tying up too much money to veterans which wont give us much flexibility in the free agent market this year. if we cant move lupul then we have to move blake. im sorry but we desperately need the cap space. im not saying blake is bad or anything but i dont think he is a necessary piece to winning a cup. maybe he’s better linemate than lupul but what about belesky or deschamps? we should give them a chance and i think belesky has already established himself in my mind although he could work on his plus-minus rating
I agree that we shouldn’t give Ryan a 6+ year contract, as those always seem to find a way to bite you in the ass(see Redden, Dipietro, Lecavalier and the Chicago cap mess). However, I think that 2 years is a bit to short. If we’re willing to give the incredibly inconsistent Hiller a 4 year contract, then I see no reason why the same can’t be done with Ryan. Personally, I feel that Ryan has a lot more potential than Hiller.
Hiller’s a UFA today. If we give Ryan a shorter contract, he’s still an RFA at the end of it. So that would be the main reason that any comparison in their contract negotiations would be invalid.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Apr 23, 2010 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions
yeah, no, i get what you were saying, but UFA’s can usually command a little more at the bargaining table, so there’s no reason to say IF we give HIller X, why wouldn’t we give Ryan Y. The answer is because we can afford to offer to play games with Ryan; no such bargaining position with Hiller.
by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Apr 23, 2010 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions
On a sidenote, I loath when hockey discussions turn into baseball ones. If there’s anything I hate more in the world than the Red Wings, it’s baseball. Boring as fuck
There's nothing to see here. And nothing gazes back at me.
Basketball?
Really? At what point during a team scoring 80 points am I supposed to get excited?
People bitch about officiating in hockey…
by PhantomPretender on Apr 24, 2010 11:59 PM PDT up reply actions
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