Silver Lining?

by PhantomPretender on Nov 19, 2011 12:14 PM PST in From the Flying V

Remember this? It's called winning. It's fun. Let's try it again.

It's tough to find any motivation to write when your team is so embarrassingly and infuriatingly bad. Sure, you can vent and bitch and complain, but that only offers so much relief. We can propose line combinations, advocate for changes in captaincy, or scream for the coach's dismissal, but after that, what's left?

One of the most excruciating things about this season so far is how badly we've under-performed as a team. After all, we have the reigning league MVP, the reigning point-leader among defensemen, and four of our skaters finished in the top 21 amongst point leaders last season. In fact, the Ducks had five players (Corey Perry, Teemu Selanne, Ryan Getzlaf, Bobby Ryan, and Lubomir Visnovsky) finish in the top 30 for points last season. The next best teams (Dallas, Chicago, and Vancouver) only featured three such skaters.

In short: We shouldn't be this bad.

At 6-9-4 and 14th place in the Western Conference, it's hard to find a whole lot to be hopeful about. But here are some potential reasons why the Ducks' luck may eventually turn.

A Brutal Schedule

Thus far, the Ducks have faced one of the toughest schedules in the NHL. According to Hockey Reference, they have the third toughest schedule (Carolina has the toughest and the Islanders have the second most difficult). Anaheim's opponents are a combined 136-90-25 and have an average of 21 standings points. Jokes about feasting off the Ducks aside, Anaheim has faced some pretty good teams in through their first 19 games.

Career Lows

Player	Career PPG	Current PPG	Career S%	Current S%	Career S/G	Current S/G
Corey Perry	0.684	0.814	12.5	10.4	2.99	3.53
Teemu Selanne	1.063	0.947	15.4	10.7	3.27	2.95
Ryan Getzlaf	0.949	0.579	12.5	9.3	2.32	2.26
Bobby Ryan	0.784	0.473	13.9	9.8	2.94	2.68
Lubomir Visnvosky	0.594	0.250	8.9	3.2	1.76	1.94

Um, yikes. Only Perry is currently topping his career production and while Teemu is close, Bobby, Getz, and Lubo are all significantly below their career averages. What I find truly fascinating, though, are the shot percentages and shot rates. Not only are we not shooting as much, but EVERYONE has been less successful with their shots than they typically are.

I know attributing this to luck seems like a cop out, but it seems highly unlikely that everyone on the team would concurrently have terrible years. The point totals are obviously related, but there's really no viable explanation for the shot percentages.

Adding to this mess is Jonas Hiller's rough start. His current 2.94 GAA and .905 save percentage are well below his career norms of 2.55 and .920.

It's pretty clear that this team is better than they've played. At some point, logic would suggest that things MUST turn around.

OT/SO Failures

Finally, this team has played five games that have gone beyond regulation. Of the five games, the Ducks have only won one of them. This is a curious departure for a team that has been relatively successful in the extra frame over the last few years. Last season, the Ducks won 13 off 18 SO/OT games. They only won 8 of 19 in 2009-2010, but won 12 of 19 in 2008-2009. Over the past three years, the Ducks have won 33 of 56 OT/SO affairs, nearly 59% of such games. We're obviously dealing with some sample size concerns so far this season, but again, this is an area where the Ducks should be more successful than they have been.

It may seem overly Pollyanna-ish to cling to these data points, but I simply cannot accept that this team is a bad one. We have talented players and we've enjoyed recent success with this core. We have certainly played below our standards and capabilities. That's not even debatable. But there is enough reason to believe that things can and will turn around.

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Comments

It’s just kinda stupefying that this team, that was basically the same team from last year, has had such a hard time gelling.

Hiller looks average
Defense is suspect
Offense is non-existent

And here, I believe many thought this team would at least be run of the mill. It is somewhat flabbergasting, but I wouldn’t say surprising. The mental mistakes often times remind me of last season. The inability to go head to head with the elite top lines, the short 2 line bench, the goal question mark…

It’s hard to say exactly what is ailing this team, but it basically looks like the same problems as last year.

The one silver lining I can find in all this disgusting hockey is the play of players like Beleskey, Macenauer, Brookbank. They are doing their jobs as 4th liners and as a 6/7 d-man. Of course, Teemu hasn’t disappointed either, but others have. Lydman, Koivu, Cogliano, Ryan, Getzlaf, Mc Millan, Gordon, Fowler… It just doesn’t seem like there is a lot of chemistry on this team right now.

by cal-S- on Nov 19, 2011 12:47 PM PST reply actions

This team isn’t built for anything. It’s not a grinding team, it’s not a speed team, it’s not a skill team. The defense isn’t offense focused, it isn’t shutdown, it isn’t bruising.

This team is lacking direction. When that happens, players underperform.

by Daniel AC on Nov 19, 2011 3:31 PM PST via mobile up reply actions

Spot on. +1 Daniel.

by Motherboy on Nov 19, 2011 3:35 PM PST up reply actions

I think we're supposed to be a skill team

Just because we have big forwards doesn’t mean they’re not talented. This team was built to score a ton of goals. The first two lines were supposed to be doing their share and the main focus this offseason was to get more depth scoring. The big problem, of course, has been that the first two lines are not getting it done.

I actually feel like we’re getting better third and fourth line contributions this year but they’ve been over-shadowed by the dearth of offense from the top two lines and the PP.

by PhantomPretender on Nov 19, 2011 3:46 PM PST up reply actions

I don’t think we play a skill friendly system…

by DavidBL on Nov 19, 2011 6:55 PM PST up reply actions

Talent and skilare different things. I’m talking about style of play. Skill guys use passing and effective shooting to open up space. Our top line doesn’t do that. Perry is a power forward, so is Getzlaf, despite that playmaking ability. Bobby is…Bobby is…Bobby doesn’t know what he is, but he does play more of a skill game. He doesn’t take punishment; he only takes advantage of other players.

Depth hasn’t been awful, but it hasn’t been great either. This was supposed to be a team whose PP and top line scored a ton of goals, but as Selanne can tell you, since he was on those one-line Ducks teams of the late 90s, that shit only gets you so far.

by Daniel AC on Nov 19, 2011 9:26 PM PST via mobile up reply actions

Isnt Bobby supposed to be a Power Forward and Perry more of a 2 way forward?

by Hockey Phreak on Nov 19, 2011 9:37 PM PST up reply actions

Perry is a power forward. He uses his body for positioning, goes in to take the body and works around the net. Bobby is a sniper who hits. He looks for holes and really just wants to shoot the puck.

by Daniel AC on Nov 20, 2011 4:21 AM PST via mobile up reply actions

I would like to shoulder the blame for the Ducks troubles.

It all started when I joined this blog. I brought the Angels shaky pitching troubles, mental errors, average defense, struggles against beatable clubs, and offensive void to the Honda Center. I apologize.

by Halowitz on Nov 20, 2011 1:08 AM PST up reply actions

Shot distance? If there’s a lack of quality shots from players who typically take quality shots then it could be a sign that they aren’t buying into the system or the system itself is failing them.

by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Nov 19, 2011 4:19 PM PST reply actions

Is there a place where you can find

Average shot distance?

by PhantomPretender on Nov 19, 2011 4:43 PM PST via mobile up reply actions

Behind the net.

by Daniel AC on Nov 19, 2011 9:20 PM PST via mobile up reply actions

I cant buy this argument. The players are generally the same as previous seasons (and by that i mean the core players). The same system has been successful, so why would these players suddenly decide that the system doesnt suit them?

by BennyLightning on Nov 19, 2011 6:45 PM PST up reply actions

Selanne himself said after the first round of player meetings this year that players needed to be reminded to buy into the system. With Carlyle, they say that every year, and what that comes down to is staying committed to the system when you feel it isn’t working. That includes not settling for low percentage shots while frustrated.

That isn’t really an argument. It’s just an analysis of what could be missing in the data, since Robby left that as a question. The system isn’t designed for low percentage shots, so if the same number of shots are being taken without equivalent production, you have to wonder if lower percentage shot attempts are happening. And if they are, is that a sign of players not buying into the system? Then, by extension, is that also a sign that this core group of players has reached a point of frustration where they are, as a group, not buying into the system or actively doubting it. Fair question when everyone’s calling for Carlyle’s head, and his last few seasons have featured prolonged losing streaks and numerous player meetings where at least one guy talks to the media about the importance of buying into the system.

by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Nov 20, 2011 7:00 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions

Holy Crap it's Hans

How you been?

by Newport Rebel on Nov 19, 2011 9:48 PM PST up reply actions

Good. I took a cue from that MyFace episode of The League and started an offline hockey blog. I write my posts down on a legal pad, hand them to Robby, and he comments in the margin. :)

by Arthur from Anaheim Calling on Nov 20, 2011 7:03 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions

I really wish we still had Lupul. And not just cause hes having a good year. Always thought he was a great player and that the trade was bad. Not that I dont like having Beauch back, but id rather have Lupul.

by Hockey Phreak on Nov 19, 2011 8:15 PM PST reply actions