Angels Thoughts: Albert Pujols

Did we really just sign Albert Pujols to the Angels? Yea, I still can’t believe we actually signed him but after all my reading and answering questions about this trade from friends and some baseball fans I thought id give a little info on my take of why this is a good deal, how the team will look, and what maybe we can expect from Pujols over the life of the deal. (NOTE: projections are mine but based off player comparisons)

Opening Day Starting lineup possibilities: (A few I see as most likely)

I would give you these lineups as having the greatest possibility. Why? Well I think these combinations provide the biggest help and affect of Pujols to the rest of the roster. I think the biggest affect we will see is to batting averages as they rebound from a couple years back.

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(Pujols) Projected statistics over contract:

The numbers a project are absolutely just my prediction but take into account probability of decline rates related to other players near his caliber although in most areas no one has consistently been as good over a long period. Other things that are taken into account is position, way he swings, and his strengths and the likelihood of losing those and at what rate.

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Games: I based games played off of the average of the last 11 years and that number comes out to 155 games averaged by year. So while its impossible to predict injury I do have him missing at least 5 games a year (rest or otherwise) as well as near the end of his career being the last 3 years him missing his biggest chunks of games as he declines and possibly sees less time to injury or maybe even the future first baseman getting at bats though in that scenario he could be the DH still.

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Average: Batting average is interesting. There are few players that have been as consistent as him in his career in this area especially in recent history. This is one of those areas that most of the top players that had high batting averages tend to continue late into their careers if not over their full career. In my opinion he will be above .300 or right at it for his whole career though I could see a dip below in his last 2 or 3 years with the likely reduction in games played as he enters 40+ years old.

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Home Runs: This is a guy with some of the greatest power (raw power) and Slugging % in the history of the game. Raw power numbers or ISO is up at the level of Babe Ruth and Ted williams for a bit of a comparison. Also his slugging % is likewise up their and he ranks 4th all time behind Ruth and Williams. So in short I don’t think his power numbers are going to take a big hit over the length of this contract. Sure maybe I am wrong and he will have a down year or two but nothing I have seen makes me think it more likely that happens than he continues on the path he is with a slow decline.

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Runs Batted in: This is the area that depends almost as much on Pujols as it does the other players on the team. I think he will stick right around 100 RBI’s while he is with the Angels. Part of my reasoning here is that I see our top of the order being able to set up well for Pujols giving him plenty of chances to bring people in.

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Stolen Bases: No doubt that Pujols can steal some bases and has averaged 8 a season with teen numbers a few times last few years. I see him having success early his first few years with the Angels in the run game and that kinda going away as he gets to around 35-37. Most of these steals will likely not be straight steals and a good amount could come from hit and run situations.

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Projected statistical impact on key roster players: While I think that all players will benefit from Pujols in the lineup these are who I think benefit the most:

1. Howie Kendrick: While its true last years number were career highs in most areas assuming he is hitting in the #2 whole like expected those number should improve:

So Howie is projected to hit in-front of Pujols. What this will do is 2 very key things. One is to sit bad pitches easier and also he should see more good pitches because they don’t want to put anyone on base in-front of Pujols. He will score more runs cause not only is he getting on base more (OBP) but should be getting hit in more. I thought before and I think even more now that His average goes back up to .300+ I have no reason to think otherwise.

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2. Trumbo, and Wells: Both of these guys should have big years this year with less pressure on them. Trumbo no longer has to feel like the only power guy as a rookie, has an extra year under him and should improve in walks, average, homers, RBI, OBP. I think Wells improves in these areas also but most importantly in his average and OBP.

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Financial Impact on future moves: This move will impact other moves and to what extent is impossible to say for sure. However, I will say that I don’t think it is going to hamper future moves in future years like most expected it would.

First, while he surely eats up a lot of salary we have a new revenue stream that we didn’t have previously. Announced about a day after the signing of Pujols was a 3 billion dollar TV contract with Fox over the next 20 years. This will bring in an annual 150 million where as the previous contract only brought in 50 million.

Second, is this signing will help merchandise, advertising, and tv ratings. Merchandise the gains are probably going to be the least of these three areas for the simple reason that Pujols merch. sales will eat at other player sales. I don’t mention attendance as one of the big three though either cause while we will get gains their it will be because of increased prices not fan turnout as we already are near sell out each game.

Third, It does put us near the tax threshold this year so it will limit what the Angels still can so this season. However, going forward the impact will be lessened because of contracts coming off the books over the next few years. Assuming the books are handled right and not assuming any gigantic contracts in the near future next year we only have 8 contracts on the books. This will change but this to say most of our players are not under contract after next year and are either up for arbitration (5) or are FA’s (5). This will allow us plenty of room to do what we need or want to do.