Armchair GM: The Ducklings
DANIEL:
If you don't know Hockey's Future, then you're missing a valuable source in evaluating up and coming NHL talent. Recently, they released their list of the top 10 organizations in the NHL in terms of the talent pool in the cupboard. It was good news and bad news for the Ducks as they were ranked 8th, but 5 of the top 8 teams were from the Western Conference and will be major competition for playoff positions going forward. This ranking is largely based on the offensive talent in the system, especially some of our prospects in major junior hockey. Speaking of major junior, Hockey's Future also evaluated the Ducks' talent at that level.
I'm not here to do a post evaluating the potential of each player; that's what Arthur does when in his Armchair Scout posts. Rather, I want to look at how some of these prospects might fit in with the squad next season. After the jump, I'll look at the players that Hockey's future has labeled the top 5 prospects in our organization as well as a few other players from the list of junior prospects that were evaluated. Overall, I'll cover 7 players and the scenarios that would be necessary for them to make the roster this season.
Emerson Etem: He's the one most recently signed to an entry level deal, so he gets evaluated first. Etem might be the only person in the entire organization who is hoping that Teemu Selanne retires. Honestly, he's probably the only player in the cupboard that can match Selanne's speed. If Selanne retires, then the knee jerk reaction might be to put the Selanne-esque player with Saku Koivu, but that would be a mistake considering how fantastic that Ryan-Koivu-Sexton line was a season and a half ago. Etem would fit well on a third line with Brandon McMillan and another winger, maybe our next player on the listDevante Smith-Pelly: Besides Kyle Palmieri,I think DSP is the player who has the best chance of making the team next year. His skill set lends itself to being that productive third liner who can also be an energy player. Carlyle is going to love the way this kid gets in on the forecheck. I think Devante got the best look of all the first year players at last year's camp. He might even be the player to round out that third line with McMillan and Etem. I do think that DSP will be competing with Beleskey to be that checking forward who provides a little offense, but I don't think a full season in Syracuse after Devo is done in the OHL would be a bad idea either. He might even make Beleskey expendable, depending on how well he plays at this year's camp.
Peter Holland: Peter is pretty much in the same boat as Etem. It's probably going to take someone retiring or getting moved to make room for him on the roster. Personally, I see him as 5th on the organization's list of centers behind Getzlaf, Koivu, McMillan and Bonino. While, Bonino hasn't shown the offensive potential that Holland has, he has shown some capability at the NHL level. Holland has some ability, but I can't see him getting time in Anaheim unless he just blows us all away in the preseason and we can't deny him a spot. Even then, does he get the second line and Koivu gets bumped down to the third line? Where does that leave McMillan, who can play the wing, but has such a strong 2-way game at a position that is reserved for the most defensively responsible forward? How did I get away with writing such a loooooong question? All of those are things that need to be considered when looking at Holland's chances to have our team's name on his chest. You know, because we don't really have a logo.
Kyle Palmieri: Kyle might seem the more natural replacement for a retiring Selanne, but I just don't think he's as fast as Etem. Moreover, I'm already on the Dan Sexton bandwagon when it comes to undersized right wingers. Still, Palmieri is going to get a long look at camp. The best thing he has going for him is that he's actually played in the NHL and managed to find the back of the net...once. I don't see Palmieri leap frogging anybody to get a permanent spot on the roster. He's not a viable replacement for Selanne, but he could be a replacement for Blake, if we move him to clear some cap space. He will offer offensive options for the Ducks, and will probably be the top option out of Syracuse. Personally, I think we should let him stay in Syracuse while we figure out what to do with Dan Sexton.
Sami Vatanen: I think it's time to get Vatanen to the United States. Not because the organization desperately needs his offensive talents. I'd rank him third on our depth chart of offensive D, behind Fowler and Schultz. Honestly, I think we need to see if Vatanen can play on the wing. When I see him in those blue Finnish uniforms, he looks like a smurf. It's one thing to be undersized on the wing, it's completely different to be 5'9" in skates and get trapped on the ice against Joe Thornton. Imagine if Shane Doan had hit Vatanen instead of Fowler. I'm not saying the kid can't take a hit. I'm sure he gets hit by grown men from time to time in the Finnish Elite League. I'm saying that the ice is smaller here, and it's harder to get out of the way, no matter how well you skate. There's no denying the offensive talent, and if the Ducks ever sign him he could be a good player for us. It's going to take a miracle for him to find his way to the Anaheim blue line this year. There are too many needs to take a chance on a small offensive defenseman when you already have 7 guys signed for next year.
Igor Bobkov: If there was one player on this list I would 100% not want to see in a Ducks sweater next year, it would be Bobkov. However, depending on the Hiller situation and what gets done in the offseason, there's a chance he could get a cup of coffee this year. Goalies tend to develop a little slower, but Bobkov has shown some flashes of big game greatness. He's huge, and you'd think he could block 90% of the net by just standing in it. Still, the Ducks should let him develop as one of the top options in Syracuse. Murray should get an NHL goalie with experience if Hiller can't play. Bobkov needs time to develop and the organization shouldn't explore options that bring him up too early. He's the best goaltending prospect we have, maybe the only one.
Scott Valentine: I think I'll rank Scott Valentine third on the most-likely-to-make-the-NHL-next-season list. Valentine had a 48 number swing in the +/- category and nearly doubled his point total from 19 to 36. Hockey's Future also notes that the physical side of his game has really started to develop. The Ducks are really in the air for that 6th defender, and I've said before that it's probably not a bad idea to start giving a young guy a chance to crack the line up and develop in the NHL. There's a chance that Valentine could skip over guys like Mat Clark and Mark Mitera and find his way into that spot. Of course, the Ducks would need to find a home for Andy Sutton to make that happen. You never know what can happen, and Valentine might be able to work his way onto this roster.
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DSP McMillian Etem/Sexton 3d line, with Sexton/Etem as a poor mans #8, let it be so. First young forward, not named McMillian, to blink gets replaced with Palmieri. Vatanen as wing? I was under the impression he was killing it as a Dman. Thou with Vish Fowler and Schultz we’re up to our ears in PP quarterbacks….. the horror. Of course Vatanen is prolly gonna get traded for a 3d line Winchester/Lappy/Ruuto/most BM pick ups, whose sole purpose is to keep Sexton/ Beleskey out of the line up and take bad penalties with the 6 minutes a game they get. Why isn’t Ben Eager on our roster? He sounds like a perfect BM acquisition.
I can see some of those scenarios taking place that you (daniel) mentioned. Like you, I am a little skeptical of Palmieri because of his skating and would much rather see Sexton get time if I had to choose between the two. As I have mentioned before, DSP and Etem will get a nice long look this upcoming season. They both seem to possess the speed and ability to check themselves into offensive opportunities something that the Ducks third line seemed to lack most of last season. Additionally, I know you guys have touched on it before, but it seems that some pieces might have to be moved in order to stop the duplicity we have with undersized offensemen as well as free up slots on the roster. Sorry to say it but I think you are spot on about Beleskey being on the bubble, too….
A DSP, McMillian, Etem line would have a great mix of skill and grit. That could be a monster line in the future.
We could call it the Oreo line. That line does look like it would have all the tools to be a great combination though.
There is no justice. It's just us. . . brotha.
For some reason I have a feeling that wont stick.
by Newport Rebel on May 24, 2011 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Devante with 2 more goals last game and a contorversial disallowed goal in the game prior to that one…the kid is clutch, I’ve been watching the memorial cup games and he’s a force, I give him a very very good shot at making the Ducks next year.
I loved what I saw from him in young players games/preseason. So big and willing to hit everything.
by pearljamfan80 on May 29, 2011 1:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah he is a gem in the pipeline. I can’t wait to see him play in the black and orange.
by Newport Rebel on May 29, 2011 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Just more proof we need to fire Murray.
by Daniel AC on Jun 2, 2011 11:44 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Out of curiosity, what makes you blame Murray on this one? I’m sure they gave him the standard contract option they do to all rookies. If he doesn’t accept it because he doesn’t want to play in our organization, why does that blame fall to Murray exactly? Just want to see your thoughts.
Valentine’s value has been going up all year. Murray probably should have been on top of that. Moreover, it’s his job to negotiate the appropriate deal. Murray needs to be a strong enough negotiator to make sure this kid signs. A lot of people get drafted by teams they don’t necessarily want to play for, but it’s their job. You can’t expect a kid to play for peanuts after his stock has risen.
It’s easy to say the kid should jump up and down and feel blessed he gets to play pro hockey, but that’s at best naiive and at worst stupid. His career window is smaller than ten years and he has little to no education. He needs to get paid. Even if it’s an extra hundred grand while he has the value to negotiate for the extra money. A GM needs to pay player’s their value or convince them it’s in their interest to take less. It’s clear Murray hasn’t done either of those.
by Daniel AC on Jun 2, 2011 7:29 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Fair enough. I just place a certain amount of blame on the players too. Maybe they want way more than anyone would be willing to pay them. Murray may very well be making a more than fair offer but the kid could just want way too much and not be signing because of that. Sure some of that falls on Murray to convince him of otherwise and get him to sign, but if the kid is getting whispered in his ear by his parents or girlfriend or wife or agent or whoever, that could be screwing Murray. I place a fair amount of blame on the kid. Maybe I shouldn’t, but I do.
What makes you think he wants too much money, instead of thinking that Murray is lowballing him?
by Daniel AC on Jun 2, 2011 9:39 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Well nothing I guess. I just can see either the player wanting more than he’s worth as an option. It can very well be that Murray is lowballing him. I’m not all that familiar with rookie contracts, so my comment may be completely off base, but I thought most rookie contracts were nearly the same in their figures. They might vary a little, but for the most part I thought they were close to the same. Again, I could be completely wrong.
If ou go to capgeek you can see how different they are. I’ve seen everything from 500K-1.5 million for nhl work on an elc, and equal variety on the AHL salary. We are talking a out potentially losing a few hundred thousand dollars over the course of the contract. A business will always protect its bottom line, therefore I usually side with labor.
by Daniel AC on Jun 3, 2011 8:12 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I'll be the first to admit that murray has flaws
But I don’t think we have enough info in this case to assign blame either way. The only thing I’ve read is that McNab made the team’s final offer and valentine declined. As far as I know, nothing other than that has been released publicly.
Do we also know for sure that murray was in charge of this signing? I’ve only seen mcnab’s name mentioned but it’s conceivable that murray gave mcnab a ceiling to work under.
by PhantomPretender on Jun 3, 2011 8:12 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
If Murray had no voice in this negotiation then he REALLY needs to be fired. I love McNab, but the GM needs to know what’s going on and take responsibility for everything that happens. This is a contract negotiation, not a bad puck bounce. The GM should take responsibility for a situation like this.
by Daniel AC on Jun 3, 2011 8:15 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I think Murray must be blamed
Take, for example, what happened with CGY’s former first rounder Erixon. The kid was so adamant about playing for the Rangers that he was willing to forgo any contract offer from CGY to get back into the draft. In turn, the Flames dealt with the situation the only way they could. They traded him and a 5th rounder to the Rangers in exchange for two 2nd rounders and Roman Horak.
Now, this isn’t to say Valentine declined the offers because he wanted to play for another team. However, Murray had the option to at least get something in return. But, as we’ve become so accustomed to, Murray just let another asset walk out the door, leaving us with zilch.
I got a fever and the only prescription is more cowbell
I know someone will say that Murray probably couldn’t trade him and that’s a sign he was fishing for more money than he deserved, but istill think the GM needs to make something happen. This is a young defenseman that just saw his point totals and +\- go up last year. There had to be someone interested in acquiring a young shutdown guy who can provide depth. It’s Murray’s job to find that deal and make it happen. Except, you know, he sucks.
by Daniel AC on Jun 4, 2011 7:43 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions

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