Ducks Stat-urday: Show Me the Money (No, Seriously, We Need It)

We probably can't afford to have both of these guys around next year. - USA TODAY Sports

Robby does some back-of-the-envelope math to get a sense of our salary situation in the coming off-season. And it ain't pretty.

With the signing of Viktor Fasth earlier this week, I figured now is as good of time as any to take stock of our financial situation next year. With Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Teemu Selanne, and Saku Koivu all set to become unrestricted free agents this offseason, we should try to figure out how much money we’ll have to spend and what additional assets we may need to spend it on.

As of right now, the Anaheim Ducks have $35,739,167 in payroll committed to 13 players for the 2013-2014 season. For the Ducks, the actual salary cap is largely irrelevant (and remember to click the Salaries tab at Cap Geek since we’re a cash team), but for the record, next year’s cap will be set at $64,300,000.

Back to the 13 roster players the Ducks have under contract for next season. They breakdown as follows (listed in descending order of cost).

Forwards

Defensemen

Goaltenders

Bobby Ryan

Cam Fowler

Jonas Hiller

Andrew Cogliano

Sheldon Souray

Viktor Fasth

Daniel Winnik

Francois Beauchemin

Peter Holland

Bryan Allen

Nick Bonino

Luca Sbisa

Brad Staubitz (ugh)

Before we begin assigning salaries to our UFA, RFAs, and non-roster players, we need a reasonable expectation of how much we’re going to spend. Here’s the Ducks’ average payroll over the past three seasons:

Season

Payroll

2012-2013

$55,196,313

2011-2012

$57,705,500

2010-2011

$53,977,500

As we can see, payroll has fluctuated some, but has stayed between $54 and $58 million. I’m going to give the Samuellis the benefit of the doubt with the Twins coming up and say that they match last year’s total of $57,705,500. Using this number, the Ducks have approximately $20 million to fill out their roster. With about 8-9 spots to fill, that averages out to just over $2 million per player.

Obviously, it’s not that simple.

Before we go any further, let’s figure out which of our non-roster players could conceivably fill a spot on next year’s squad:

Forwards

Salary

Defensemen

Salary

Rickard Rakell

$925,000

Hampus Lindhold

$925,000

Devante-Smith Pelly

$690,000

Sami Vatanen

$925,000

Emerson Etem

$900,000

Total

$2,515,000

$1,850,00

So for those five players, we’ve added $4,365,000 in payroll, bringing our total up to $40,104,167 for 18 players. This leaves us with $17 million with the aforementioned elite players outstanding and the RFAs of Kyle Palmieri and Mat Beleskey. Let’s figure out what they’re due.

Palmieri and Beleskey probably stick around next year, and both figure to get raises over this year’s salaries. Palmieri is making just over $1 million and Beleskey is at $737,500. I’m completely ballparking these, but $1.5 to 2 million feels right for KP and $1 to 1.25 feels right for Beleskey. Taking the median of those, we’re looking at an additional $3 million for the two of them, bringing the 2012-2013 payroll up to $43,104,167 for 20 players.

Ruh rohs.

We’re now left with approximately $14-15 million for the Twins, Koivu, and Selanne. Either these four take extreme discounts, or there’s no way we resign all of them. In fact, $14-15 million probably doesn’t even cover the Twins alone.

Now I realize that signing all four of these guys would put us at 24 players, which is over the number we’ll carry on the roster. So let’s figure some of the lower-rung guys still don’t make the team last year, and we have maybe $17 million to spend.

We still have a problem.

For comparison’s sake, here’s what each of the four remaining players has made over the past three years.

Player

2012-2013 Salary

2011-2012 Salary

2010-2011 Salary

Ryan Getzlaf

$6,125,000

$5,750,000

$5,125,000

Corey Perry

$5,325,000

$4,875,000

$5,375,000

Teemu Selanne

$4,500,000

$4,00,000

$3,250,000

Saku Koivu

$3,800,000

$2,500,000

$2,500,000

First the good news. Selanne and Koivu probably wouldn’t make that much again next season. If they come back, I think we could ballpark Teemu between $3.5 and 4 million, and Koivu between $2.5 and 3.25 million. Again, taking the median of these, we’re looking at $6.5 million between the two of them.

That leaves just over $10 million for the Twins, which obviously won’t cut it. But let’s look at what the Twins might make and figure out how the Ducks could make that number work in the context of the rest of their commitments.

Per the new CBA, the maximum contract the Twins could receive would be an 8-year, $102,880,000 deal (8 years at $12,860,000, which is 20% of next year’s total cap). The Twins can only get an 8-year deal if they resign with the Ducks before July 1. After that, they can only sign a max of 7 years.

Now the Twins probably won’t get that, but most people figure the Twins to be in the max year, $7 to 8 million per year range. Again, if we split the difference, we’re looking at securing the Twins to identical 8-year, $60 million deals. I would go on record and say that I don’t think the Ducks could afford to go over that, so if people start throwing stupid money at the Twins ($10 million/year), they’re probably gone.

But let’s assume they could resign for $15 million combined. If we were to combine that with the salaries we estimated for Teemu and Koivu, the Ducks’ total payroll is up to about $61 to 62 million. And even though it seems negligible to go from $58 million to $62 million, the Samuellis just haven’t gone there yet.

It paints sort of a bleak picture. There are ways to make it work, but they involve dealing Hiller or some combination of other players like Cogliano, Souray, Allen, and (gasp) Bobby. It’s also conceivable that we only retain one of the Twins.

It’s not an impossible task, but damn, we could be in for a rough summer. What do you think? How do you make it work?

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