ARTHUR:
I will caveat this list by saying that the trade deadline looms and other teams are asking about the Ducks' cupboard.  If Murray moves some kids around, I will update this post.

UPDATE:  Pogge has been removed, Pielmeier's breakdown revised and Cousineau added.

I've only done this once before, so let me briefly explain my methodology again.  Unless otherwise noted, I've seen every player play at least one game this season.  Other than that, I follow them through stats and game recaps from local writers.  I break down my rubric here, but essentially, I rank the Ducks' prospects based on three factors: skill, position in the development process, and relationship to the organization (i.e. organizational preference for the player and likelihood of an opening in the depth chart).  The ideal number one candidate on my list would have the most impressive skillset in the cupboard, three years of dominant play at the junior/NCAA level, three years of dominant play at the AHL level, an affordable and signed entry level contract, positive performance at all conditioning or training camps, an opening for himself in the depth chart, and the favor of the coaching staff and front office.  

I graduate all players who have played 25 games (considered a rookie season) in the NHL.  This is why you did not see Luca Sbisa (39 GP with Philadelphia) on my last list and why you will no longer see Dan Sexton (previously 11th) or Matt Beleskey (previously 4th) on my new list.  I will inject a little NCAA bias from time to time-- it's who I am --but I will also inject the bias of others.  For example, the glowing praise of the front office put Brian Salcido on my last list, and it would have put Troy Bodie on this list if he didn't need just one more game to hit 25.  I'm not sure why the front office and coaching staff have so much faith in these players, but they would really know better than I would.  And clearly, in a situation like Bodie's, they are willing to inject him into the roster despite the fact that Big George still has two years and a clothing line on his contract.   

 On to the list...

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Click on the photo for CK's full photo gallery from the December 16th Condors/Reign game.

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

For those who haven't managed to make it to a Condors game against the Reign this year, the Ducks ECHL affiliate will be playing its last two games in Ontario on the 21st and 28th.  That's this Sunday and next Sunday, both with 5 p.m. starts.  

A lot of the "must see" players that were there when I first went to Citizen's Bank in October have moved on to the AHL, players like MacGregor Sharp and Dan Sexton.  And players like Mark Mitera, who were Condors just last month, have also moved on to the American League.  But the price of admission on Sunday (about $20 to sit on the glass behind the opposing goaltender) will still get you a look at Ducks prospects like Timo Pielmeier, Maxime Macenauer and Matt McCue.

Pielmeier, you know, but McCue and Macenauer are two guys whose injury troubles this season have kept them from permanent AHL assignment.  McCue played 10 games with the Manitoba Moose before a November injury took him out of their lineup.  He's since played 11 games with the Condors and managed 34 PIM.  Macenauer was a top scorer for the Condors, but took a major injury just before Halloween.  He's back on track now with 5G and 13A in 26 games, but he may not find himself in an AHL uniform until next season.  Both players had good camps with the Ducks, and they're definitely worth a look if you have the disposable time and money.

I should warn you that the Condors have played poorly against the Reign the last two times I went.  And I mean Generals against the Globetrotters poorly.  Interestingly, both games came after absolutely stomping the Reign in Bakersfield, which the Condors did again 7-0 on Valentine's Day.  Hopefully they can break that pattern.

ARTHUR:

I wasn't as excited about the lineup for this game as I had been on Halloween.  At first, I thought it was my NCAA bias, but with former Wolverines captain Mark Mitera a prominent figure on the Condors blueline, that rang false.  And really, going to see two First Round picks (Mitera and Logan MacMillan) should have been more exciting than going to see two NCAA free agents (MacGregor Sharp and Dan Sexton).  But I guess I've given up on MacMillan, and I really wasn't all that impressed with Mitera at camp.  They would both have to win me over again.

Unfortunately, like Halloween, last Wednesday was not a game that could highlight their skills.  Despite sitting atop their ECHL division and Pielmeier scoring a goal this weekend, the Condors powerful suck in Ontario this season.  It was essentially another shutout effort, but the team rallied to scrum the crease and score a goal in the waning seconds of the 2-1 loss.  

But as I attended the game to provide you with an update, an update you shall get after the jump...

Ed. Note:  I went to this game with CK, but she hasn't put the pictures together as of this post.  I'll post a photo gallery (probably as a link to a post on the old Blogger site for copyright reasons)  when she gets them to me.

Continue reading this post »

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

The 2010 Entry Draft, to be held in Los Angeles, is not so much a silver lining for this Ducks team as it is the focal point of an unavoidable rebuilding period.  Right now, the Ducks have a great pick and an additional First Rounder for good measure (and I'll thank Murray to keep his grubby hands off both of them and let this organization use them).  And so, today's Central Scouting report offers a little comforting news to a Ducks fan base that hasn't gotten a look at the top picks since the 2005 Draft Lottery.

The news?  Taylor Hall's coronation is officially on hold.

Continue reading this post »

ARTHUR:

Wisconsin hosted Minnesota in a couple games of puck this weekend, and that affects you as a Ducks fan because well-touted Anaheim prospects make up one-third of the Badgers defensive corps.  Jake Gardiner (1st Round 2008, 17th overall) and Justin Schultz (2nd Round 2008, 43rd overall) played well in their team's first major rivalry series this season, but Wisconsin ended up splitting the weekend with the Gophers, winning Friday's game 4-2 and losing Saturday's 5-2.  

Gardiner had a goal in the latter contest, and I'll break down the performance of each prospect after the jump.  But first, a few notes on this year's team, just to put everything in perspective.

Assistant Coach Mark Osiecki, considered a player development guru in the NCAA, manages and recruits the Badger rearguards.  He has three juniors in his 2009-10 squad, and each was teamed with an underclassman, creating the following pairings:     . 

Ryan McDonagh-Jake Gardiner (So.)

Cody Goloubef-Justin Schultz (Fr.)

Brendan Smith-John Ramage (Fr.)

So far, the jewel of the corps has been Brendan Smith, but don't fret Ducks fans.  This Wisconsin team depends on all three pairings to create offense, and Schultz and Gardiner both get plenty of time to do just that.

All right, on to the scouting report...

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ARTHUR:

I felt like a real scout last night, in that the drive was more interesting than the game and no one I went to see played very well.  Despite crushing the Reign 8-3 in their last meeting, the Bakersfield Condors were shutout, 3-0, letting two pinballed shots get past Timo Pielmeier and surrendering an empty-netter with 0.7 seconds left.

A number of Ducks prospects are playing for the Condors this year, but after the jump I'm going to focus on Logan MacMillan (Ducks 1st Round Pick 2007), Shawn Weller (acquired by trade from Ottawa), Timo Pielmeier (acquired by trade from San Jose) and David McNab's NCAA free agent pet projects: Dan Sexton, Stu Bickel and MacGregor Sharp.  I had also planned to talk about Maxime Macenauer, but he was not in the lineup on Halloween.

First, however, I should point out that seeing a game at Citizens Business Bank Arena is not a bad experience.  I came to see the visiting team shoot on a Saturday, so I paid $20 to sit two rows back from the glass (it's even cheaper Mon-Thu, but a little more expensive if you go through Ticketmaster).  The seats are comfortable, parking is free and they even gave me a $5 gift certificate to The Yardhouse.  The Condors will be in town again on December 16th & 27th, January 13th, and February 21st & 28th.  I plan to go to at least one of those games and bring CK, our unofficial staff photographer, with me (I apologize for the photo above and those to follow-- they're mine).  As most of these guys will go back to the AHL next year, it might be my last chance to see them in a minors uniform, that is, unless we get that San Diego AHL team.

Continue reading this post »

 

ARTHUR:

Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

First, I want to remind everyone to set their Tivo's.  Notre Dame at Boston University will be televised on ESPNU tomorrow at 4:00pm PDT.   That impacts you as a Ducks fan because Anaheim properties Nick Bonino and Kyle Palmieri play for Boston University and Notre Dame respectively.   Check your local listings.

The rest of this post will be my prospect profile for Nick Bonino.  I should have gone with the more obvious title, "Armchair Scout: Nick Bonino," but I couldn't pass up a quality Modern Lovers quote.  Profile after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

ARTHUR:
A couple more cuts. The Ducks announced that they have waived Steve McCarthy and sent Matt McCue to Manitoba. I had thought McCue was doing well in camp, but a move to the Moose could mean the Front Office was having trouble finding a place for him.

I was recently asked about McCue and how someone who has hung on this long could have missed my prospects list, along with players like Brittain and Macenauer, while a player like Salcido makes the Top 20.

The answers?

• McCue represents the 'size=potential' logjam I see at the bottom of the list, of which Vaive is comically emblematic.
• Brittain misses the list because he hasn't signed and the Ducks seem (inexplicably) enamored with Troy Bodie i.e. Brittain has a similar, more developed player (signed until 2011) standing between him and the Ducks.
• Macenauer is a bit complicated. He came all the way back from injury and signed with the team, but I just didn't see the next level in his play (semi-confirmed when he seemed to injure himself in rookie camp). Ultimately, I can't wait to be wrong about him, and he'll hover around the bottom 5 of my list after a good showing in the Pros.
• Salcido makes the list because the Front Office loved him, mentioning him in the same breath as Fetserling and Mikkelson. Perhaps a PR play to the Orange County audience, perhaps not. I saw enough potential to put him on the list at what was the likely end of of his minor league development process with the Ducks i.e. now or never.
• Oh, and if you're wondering, Bodie doesn't make the list because I see giant holes in skill. The Front Office and coaching staff treat him like he's knocking on the door, but I just don't see it.

Reading through my reasoning in bullet point form, it feels very natural to me, but as my list differs quite a bit from Rob and HF, I thought I should describe my basic rubric. I DON'T rank prospects strictly by projected NHL skill, and I think even professional scouts find that task rather difficult. My list is geared toward the likelihood you'll see the player in a Ducks uniform, excluding players who've played their rookie NHL season (25 games). I use the following three factors to come up with a projection of the player's future in Anaheim:

1. Position in the Development Process:
The world is an unpredictable place, and a kid with a promising career can definitely find himself behind a grinder with a signed contract and a steady development record in the AHL-- at least on my list. Unfortunately, a kid whose maintained a spotless record to get himself drafted is also technically ahead of a player in the AHL who's seen a few setbacks (i.e. potential career AHL player). It's the boom/bust tightrope, and you can fall off at any time, no matter how much rope you've walked.

Will unfairly punish:
Players who experience a bad season in the Juniors or Minors.
Players from the 3rd Round or later (traditionally a longer journey to the NHL) who don't impress.

Will unfairly reward:
Newly drafted players who have yet to experience adversity in the development process.
Players who experience an anomalously good season in the Juniors or Minors.

2. Relationship with the Ducks Organization:
This turns out to be really important on my list. I am forced to show preference to the players that Anaheim calls up because the likelihood of them wearing a Ducks uniform is logically superior to the rest of the pool (and because the organization obviously knows the player much better than I do). A call-up and a modicum of skill will usually force my hand. Ideally, I ask myself, what does management think of the player? What do the coaches think of the player? Is his position/skillset redundant on the current squad and in the current prospect pool? Or is there a void that he will need to fill in the near future?

Will unfairly punish:
Redundant players.
Unsigned players.
Unsigned late Round draftees.
Players left in the minors for contract reasons.

Will unfairly reward:
Players called up for a final cup of coffee.
First and Second Round draftees.
Players signed by the organization.
Players called up for need, not skill.
Players hyped by management.

3. Skill:
Skill and its translation to a higher level of play are nearly impossible to evaluate accurately, even for the professionals. It's certainly above my paygrade as an armchair scout. Generally, I'll be conservative here: evaluate the toolkit and forgive very little in terms of flaws and shortcomings.

Will unfairly punish:
Overseas players I've never seen who aren't covered.
Players from leagues and systems I cannot evaluate effectively.
Players in the NCAA whom I feel comfortable evaluating at length.
Non-skill Major Junior players who performed poorly in the games I've seen.

Will unfairly reward:
Overseas players I've never seen who are overhyped.
Players in the NCAA whom I feel comfortable evaluating at length.
Non-skill Major Junior players who performed well in the games I've seen.


On a final note, I do my best with this list. It's a work in progress. I feel it's held up pretty well through Training Camp. Beleskey took a step backward, certain junior players like Warg took a step forward, but Camp is a short while and these players have until December (when I next update my list) to keep walking the boom/bust tightrope.

This was Anaheim calling to the hockey world...