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Playoffmetrics: Game 5, Round 3

This would have been a heartbreaker of a game to give away.


Frederik Andersen is the talk of the hockey world after letting in two questionable goals in game five - a game that the Anaheim Ducks managed to win over the Chicago Blackhawks despite the goaltending.

There's no doubt the first goal against was weaker. While Andersen wasn't strictly screened from the shot's release point, the nature of the shot itself was surprising. Teuvo Teravainen skated squarely into Clayton Stoner's "triangle" and squeezed off a perfect, no-look laser. Freddie should make that save, but Teuvo also made an incredible play. It wasn't a slapper from the neutral zone that Andersen simply misplayed.

In Stoner's defense on that goal, his play was technically correct. In backing off, he's moving a bit side-to-side in stride to generate momentum backward; you're supposed to seal the middle before checking to or turning with an oncoming player. When Teuvo cut inside, Stoner held up and reached in with his stick to make a good defensive play. Many forwards attempt this sort of cut-inside and shoot-through maneuver - something that would have sent the attacker to the ice in previous eras - but few can pull it off so well.

Nonetheless, Andersen should have made that save. Instead he allowed the goal and the worry was on in Anaheim. But here's the thing: the Ducks were atrocious after the first period up until about the last 15 minutes, and Andersen made plenty of saves in between to excuse his momentary lapse. He still carried his team up a goal into the third after a late goal scored was scored in the second - off a shot that exploited his reaching for his goal stick previously (which Hampus Lindholm came into the crease area to push nearer to him, removing his defense on the play).

Broken plays happen.

Here's the event chart from Hockey Stats, followed immediately by the unblocked event chart. The Ducks ended its normal trend of out-attempting the Hawks in unblocked attempts - further evidence the team wasn't very good.

It isn't like Andersen was the only reason this game went off the rails. That's some bad play by the entire team.

I'll touch on one last thing with Andersen here: the last goal against that tied the game was worse than the first goal he allowed. He wasn't square to the play, he wasn't ready for any sort of shot on, and he was frankly very unlucky that it bounced in off him.

But what in world was Francois Beauchemin doing in the moments immediately leading up to the goal? The puck was dumped in on Lindholm's side and came around to Beauchemin. He had two steps, he checked over his shoulder, he had plenty of time to make any sort of play to prevent turning over the puck. Instead he slows up, loses the puck immediately despite having position, and takes a weak slash to Jonathan Toews's skates as he cruises in and shoots from a crazy angle.

If Andersen makes that save, Beauchemin's gaff hurts less. But with 40 seconds left in the game, why is the team's supposed top defender so weak on the puck? He could have eaten it with better effect. And in one note on Andersen's part here: there was no way he thought Toews was going to shoot that. He was hugging the post but still standing - with his butterfly style, that tells me he thought Toews was going to make a play to Patrick Kane, who was slashing toward net away from Patrick Maroon, as he normally drops if he expects a shot. He still has to make the save.

Here is the datarink head to head:

Here is the corsi shift chart:

Remember, in the above chart, the TOI order is mirrored.

New to this post is an expected goals graphic, from Dom Luszczyszyn. Expected goals tracks shots by location and factors in the average shooting percentage from that range. It uses shot type and the shooter himself to help determine expected numbers. Here's the graphic:

The expected outcome of the game favors the Ducks, who had a stronger number based on shot location and shooter. If nothing else, the score itself suggests both goaltenders had really rough nights. (This is also the first game in the series that the team with the higher expected goal number has actually won the game.)

Here are the TOI charts, even strength followed by all minutes:

Boudreau is finally playing Stoner in his proper ice time, but it sure does make the omission of the offensively inclined James Wisniewski more strange. If Stoner is being used so infrequently, why not tinker some? Perhaps he is concerned about the player's rust, given that Wiz hasn't played in a while.