After shipping Emerson Etem to Manhattan at this past NHL Draft, the Anaheim Ducks brought back another restricted free agent in Carl Hagelin to replace him. After re-signing Jakob Silfverberg a week ago, the final domino to fall for the Ducks forward corps has dropped as the Ducks have officially inked Hagelin. Per the Orange County Register's Eric Stephens:
Hagelin's four-year contract is worth $16 million ($4 million AAV) through 2018-19.— Eric Stephens (@icemancometh) August 14, 2015
Per NHLNumbers.com, the Ducks are still $8.245 mil. below the salary cap after completing this deal.
(All charts via OwnThePuck.ca by Dominic Galamini [@mimicohero])
|Name||Age||Yrs Left||GP||G/60||A/60||Pts/60||5-on-5 SAT%||5-on-5 SCF%||OffZS%||OppSAT%|
|Carl Hagelin (LW)||26||4||101||0.7||0.8||1.5||50.6||49.5||39.7||50.1|
|Jiri Hudler (C)||31||1||89||1.3||1.8||3.2||46.2||46.3||64.9||50.4|
|Milan Michalek (LW)||30||2||72||0.7||1.1||1.8||48.7||47.4||55.9||49.9|
|Brad Richards (DET)||35||1||99||0.6||1.4||2.0||52.8||50.1||74.8||50.4|
|David Jones (RW)||30||1||78||0.8||1.0||1.8||44.1||46.8||39.2||50.7|
|Benoit Pouliot (LW)||28||4||58||1.2||1.0||2.2||50.5||47.2||63.0||50.5|
|Bryan Bickell (LW)||29||2||98||0.7||1.0||1.7||52.4||51.1||72.2||50.1|
|Adam Henrique (C)||25||4||75||0.7||1.2||1.9||45.8||47.5||44.4||49.9|
|Ryan Johansen (C)||22||2||82||1.0||1.7||2.7||47.5||49.4||49.5||50.2|
|Jussi Jokinen (LW)||32||3||81||0.4||1.6||2.0||50.7||52.4||52.5||49.8|
|Ales Hemsky (RW)||31||2||76||0.6||1.2||1.8||51.9||52.2||61.6||50.1|
(Contract information taken from NHLNumbers.com. All stats are combined regular season and playoffs from 2014-15, taken from war-on-ice.com. Goals, assists, and points are given as averages over 60 minutes. SAT = shot attempts, SCF = scoring chances for, OffZS% = percentage of shifts started in offensive zone, OppSAT% = average shot attempts of opponents matched up against)
When this deal was initially made it was a clear switch of potential for a known quantity, as at this point in his career the Ducks know what they'll get from the speedy Hagelin. While Etem had the hooks of being a hometown boy with tantalizing goal scoring numbers in the WHL, he didn't and really wasn't afforded the opportunities to actualize as a scoring threat in the NHL playing bottom six minutes. Hagelin doesn't have that offensive upside, but is a valuable two way piece that can fit in the lineup a multitude of ways.
When comparing against other $4 mil. cap hit players, the first thing that jumps out is how the Rangers were able to control 50.6% of the shot attempts while he was on ice at 5-on-5 despite seeing amongst the toughest zone starts of the group. Even at that he ranks fourth best at creating scoring chances of the group despite being counted on to start in the defensive zone as often as he did. Pointing at Hagelin's low scoring rate over 60 minutes misses the forest for the trees- he's not an offense first player, rather he's a player that is extremely adept at turning possession and turning defending in to attacking opportunities.
In Manhattan no forward saw more penalty kill time last season, both in the regular season as well as the playoffs, than Hagelin. His combination of speed and ability to battle for and win pucks along the boards are perfectly suited for man-down play, and when coupled with a relentless motor on the forecheck gives the Ducks another player in the mold of Andrew Cogliano but with perhaps a slightly better scoring touch. Ranger fans will tell you of multiple frustrating misses, but with back to back 17 goal seasons he converts enough to be a threat in the offensive zone as well.
The nice thing about his skill set is he can be used as a burner on the second line to go with Ryan Kesler and Silfverberg, perhaps add some speedy grind to go with Rickard Rakell and Jiri Sekac, or maybe even get a look up top with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry. Considering the versatile skill set it's up to Bruce Boudreau to find Hagelin's niche in the lineup, and once that happens the track record shows that he will likely be a very useful piece both at even strength and on special teams.