Ducks @ Flames GAMETHREAD: The Final Roadie

Stat Pack

Projected Lineups

Anaheim:

Rakell-Getzlaf-Eaves

Cogliano-Kesler-Silfverberg

Ritchie-Vermette-Perry

Wagner-Thompson-Boll

Fowler-Montour

Lindholm-Manson

Holzer-Bieksa

Bernier

Gibson

Calgary:

Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland

Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik

Versteeg-Bennett-Chiasson

Bouma-Stajan-Brouwer

Giordano-Hamilton

Brodie-Stone

Bartkowski-Engelland

Elliott

Johnson

Numbers For Nerds

The Ducks have underperformed in the offensive department based on their expected goals output this season. You may be saying, well they weren't going to score much with all the holes in their bottom six and the lack of a true career top 6 scoring winger added to the team.

You're kind of right, but even then, this team could be scoring a few more goals as it is. xGF60 is an advanced stat that attempts to predict how many goals a team or player should be scoring per 60 minutes of ice time. It's also known as Expected Goal Scoring Rate. How do they calculate this? Well, it's a bit of an inexact science and can vary slightly depending on who is gathering the data. But essentially, it uses shot quality (angle, distance, etc.) to factor in how many goals should be scored. A shot from the slot would have a greater positive influence on the xGF60 than a shot from the boards in front of the blue line. Get it?

The Ducks current xGF60 is 2.66 according to corsica.hockey. Which means, based on the quality of their shots overall, the Ducks should be scoring 2.66 goals per game on average.

In reality, their GF60 (the actual measure of their scoring rate, not predictive), is 2.21. Translated to a full 82 game season, the Ducks should have almost 37 more goals scored than they actually have.

The law of statistical regression says that the Ducks should theoretically start scoring more at some point. Will that be in the playoffs? Or will it not change at all? We'll find out soon enough.