Perhaps the most stable division in hockey over the last 7 or 8 years, the Atlantic Division looks primed for a big shift at the top. The Lightning are both getting older and undergoing the inevitable atrophy of an elite team under a hard-cap league. The Bruins just lost their sure fire future Hall of Fame centreman. The Panthers got better but performed worse, until the playoffs started at least. And the Leafs are running it back with a different coat of paint and new floormats. The Sabres, Redwings, and Senators are all hoping to seize the moment of uncertainty and enter the playoff race, and Les Habitants are…. still in Montreal?
It’s a weird division and we think that’s neat, so let’s get into where each team stands and which players to watch. We’ll also have a trade the Ducks could look to make with each team, as well as which past Academy Award Best Picture nominated film (and the year they were nominated) best represents each team. Teams ordered to reflect projected division standings at the end of the year.
Note: Unless other wise noted all contract information is courtesy of CapFriendly.com, all advanced stats are courtesy of Evolving-Hockey.com, and all traditional counting stats are courtesy of Hockey-Reference.com, without whom all of this would be impossible.
1) Buffalo Sabres
Rebecca (1940)
Contender Status: Dark Horse Cup Contender
It feels a little weird to have a team winning the division but still a dark horse to win a chip, especially in a division this competitive. But the fact remains there are still plenty of kinks to get worked out on this team that, while they may not rear their ugly heads over the course of the regular season, will become a more significant factor in the postseason. This team has elite talent at every position and capable role players throughout the lineup. Ultimately this season will come down to two things, is Devon Levi ready and who, if anyone, is going to emerge to help out Tage Thompson. If they can get positive answers on those two questions, the sky might be the limit for this team.
Team MVP: Tage Thompson, C – The 6’6″ centreman followed up his breakout 38 goal showing with an even more impressive 47 goal campaign last season. Does the towering terror have another level to reach or is his ceiling that of a B-Tier MVP candidate?
X-Factor: Devon Levi, G – Can the rookie netminder claim the starting job in Buffalo? And if so, how far can an ascendant Sabres team go with reliable goaltending?
Mock Trade: Ryan Strome (F) for Victor Olofsson (F) & BUF 2025 3rd Round Pick
2) Toronto Maple Leafs
JFK (1991)
Contender Status: Cup Contender
The Maple Leafs made it out of the first round last spring and then were promptly dog walked by the Florida Panthers. They changed general managers, brought in some new faces to fill out the bottom half of the lineup, and signed Auston Matthews to a shiny new five year contract extension that will see him become the highest paid player in the NHL for the 2024-25 season. Tyler Bertuzzi was a shrewd signing to shore up their forward corp, but the accompanying deals for John Klingberg and Max Domi leave a lot to be desired. Ilya Samsonov seems to have sole claim to the starting goalie spot and Sheldon Keefe should be on one of the hotter seats in the league for a team clearly in Stanley Cup Finals or bust mode. In the end, that’s what their expectations are, that’s how everyone in the organization will be judged, and it doesn’t really matter how fair that does or doesn’t end up being.
Team MVP: Auston Matthews, C – Auston Matthews has officially cemented his place in the conversation for greatest American hockey player of all-time. He ‘s managed to score 30 goals in all seven seasons he’s been in the league, and has reached 40 in all but two. Where he lands on the greatest Leafs players list however, will be determined by the success he does or doesn’t have in the post-season.
X-Factor: Brad Treliving, GM – A new GM walking into a situation where the goal is to win championships might be the ultimate wild card. Sure, he could take his time to assess things and build out a cohesive plan moving forward beyond this year. Or, he could walk in the door with Plans of his own on what this team needs to make the leap from perennial disappointment to unqualified success. Whatever the answer ends up being, it’ll be interesting regardless.
Mock Trade: Future Considerations for Ryan Reaves (F) & Nicholas Robertson (F)
3) Tampa Bay Lightning
Four Weddings and a Funeral (1994)
Contender Status: Contender
Since losing to Chicago in the 2015 Stanley Cup Final, the Tampa Bay Lightning have failed to reach 90 points in a single season only once, the bubble shortened 2020-2021 season. That year they still managed to go 36-17-3 on their way to winning the franchise’s second Stanley Cup and the first in the back-to-back run. Since then they’ve lost key members via trade and free agency, their veteran core has gotten older, and their young stars have been paid commensurate with their abilities and impact. Despite all that, they are still every bit the contender they have been in the past. Teams may not fear them on a random Tuesday in February, but no one with any sense wants to play them as many as seven times in late April.
Team MVP: Jon Cooper, HC – Tampa Bay likely won’t be expected to replicate the regular season dominance of years past, but missing the playoffs is out of the question. Once the postseason starts however, Jon Cooper will be tasked with showing why he’s widely considered the best coach in the NHL.
X-Factor: Brandon Hagel, LW – Entering the last year of his three-year, four and a half million dollar contract, Brandon Hagel will be expected to fill the role left by Alex Killorn’s departure in free agency. If he can continue to play and produce at the level he has the last season and a half, that will go a long way towards justifying the massive 8yr x 6.5m AAV extension he signed this offseason.
Mock Trade: ANA 2024 7th Round Pick for Philippe Myers (D)
4) Florida Panthers
Babe (1995)
Contender Status: Dark Horse Contender
How you view the Florida Panthers heading into the upcoming season essentially to how you view their improbable run to the Stanley Cup Finals last year. Either you see last year as proof the Panthers are a good team with a strong roster that was ultimately undone due by injuries. Or you think that everything went perfect for them in the playoffs up until it didn’t and they blew what may end up being their best shot at a Stanley Cup. And because it’s hockey that means it basically comes down to what you think of veteran goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky. Though, with Spencer Knight seemingly gearing up for a return to the NHL, maybe the Bob part of it all is less of an issue to you. Regardless, the Sunrise residents are a strong candidate for most interesting team in the league.
Team MVP: Matthew Tkachuk, LW – After back-to-back Hart Trophy caliber seasons, it’s hard to know what could possibly be next for the second generation American superstar. The Rat King of South Florida surely won’t be happy with simply reaching the Finals, but I have no idea what it’ll take for him to top that.
X-Factor: Paul Maurice, Head Coach – Maurice took over a President’s Trophy winning team and proceeded to barely get them into the playoffs… and then guided them through a hellish eastern playoff bracket all the way to the finals. Whether or not he can duplicate that post-season success again remains to be seen, but for the sake of both his checking account and his legacy – he sure better hope he can.
Mock Trade: Jacob Perrault (F) for FLA 2024 3rd Round Pick & SJS 2025 5th Round Pick
5) Boston Bruins
The Big Chill (1983)
Contender Status: Fringe Wildcard Team
They have two different players who rank among the top five at their position in the league, a really good coach, and arguably the best goaltending tandem in the league. Add in a legitimate candidate for every major award (#MarchyForSelke) and it feels weird to have such low expectations for this team. The truth is it comes down to one thing, replacing Patrice Bergeron. I don’t know how you account for losing the most important player in your organization for the last 15 years, but that’s what Boston has to do. They certainly have the infrastructure in place to lessen the blow, but they are still going to need someone to have a career year if they’re going to make the postseason.
Team MVP: David Pastrnak, RW – With Bergeron (and to a lesser extent David Krejci) retired, Pasta may never have a better chance to win himself a Hart Trophy. A second consecutive 60 goal season that keeps alive Boston’s postseason appearance streak, which currently sits at seven, might be just enough to get him there.
X-Factor: Pavel Zacha, C – In the 2021-22 season 27 year old Ryan Hartman centered Kirill Kaprizov on the Wild’s top line and turned in a career year, posting 34 goals and 31 assists averaging over 18 minutes in 82 games. Can a 26 year old Zacha, who has been similarly productive to this point be the next one year wonder? That is the question the Bruins front office and coaching staff are going to have to answer.
Mock Trade: Adam Henrique (50% retained) & Ilya Lyubushkin (50% retained) for Brandon Carlo
6) Ottawa Senators
Raging Bull (1980)
Contender Status: Fringe Wild Card Team
Truthfully, the Senators probably deserve to be higher up the standings. They have a strong top six, even after moving on from Alex DeBrincat this summer, with the emergence of Tim Stützle. They just handed Jake Sanderson a deal that will see him make more money than MVP candidate Jack Hughes on the basis that he might be the second coming of Jaccob Slavin. And they signed Jonas Korpisalo to a significant contract under the assumption he will solve their longstanding goaltending issues. And yet… Despite the aforementioned uncertainty at the top of the division it’s still hard to see how they manage to sneak into a playoff spot. D.J. Smith remains near the top of every “first to be fired” watchlist, and it seems pretty obvious to everyone outside of Kanata that the Sabres are the team most likely to assert themselves as a new power in this division.
Team MVP: Tim Stützle, C – All due respect to Brady Tkachuk, who is just the asbolute worst in all the best ways, but it seems to me that if this team is really going to be a high-end contender then Stützle is going to have to be the MacKinnon to his Landeskog. A steady increase in points over the first three years of his NHL career, including last year’s 90 point outburst, provide a glimmer of hope that he might be.
X-Factor: Joonas Korpisalo, G – According to Natural Stat Trick, over the last three years the Columbus goalie with the highest high-danger save percentage at 5-on-5 is Korpisalo. That’s not nothing, it’s probably not enough, but it’s not nothing. The Senators will be hoping they’re getting the guy who had a .921 save percentage in 11 starts for the Kings after the 2023 trade deadline.
Mock Trade: Brett Leason (F) & ANA 2025 7th Rd Pick for Matthieu Joseph (F)
7) Detroit Redwings
Sunset Boulevard (1950)
Contender Status: Mid-Lottery Team
Adding Alex DeBrincat in a trade, and for as little as they did to boot, should have a tangible and meaningful impact on Detroit’s ability to win games. It is not, however, likely to be enough to propel the Yzerplan into its next phase. That is not in anyway a slight against the Wings star new goal scorer, as much as it’s a commentary on just how hard it is to be an MVP candidate as a pure goal scorer. Which, let’s be clear, is what it would take for him alone to get them there. David Pastrnak scored 61 goals on a team where no one else reached 30 and still finished second in Hart voting last year. Larkin remains one of my absolute favorite players in the league, Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond are entering year three, and they have plenty of depth. Ultimately the question marks for this team are at the top of the lineup, and there don’t seem to be too many candidates on the roster capable of addressing them. If you told me they finished 6th in the division ahead of Ottawa I wouldn’t be completely caught off guard but I’m not rushing out to bet the house on it happening.
Team MVP: Dylan Larkin, C – Larkin is in all reality a lower-end first line center who uses his elite skating to augment his strong, but not elite, skillset. Still, he’s the beating heart of this team, a true captain in every sense, and while it is unlikely he puts up 80+ points in a single season, he’s plenty capable of impacting games in high leverage situations.
X-Factor: Lucas Raymond, RW – Entering the last year of his entry level contract, the time has come for Lucas Raymond to prove he’s more than just a complimentary playmaker (WHICH IS FINE BY THE WAY!). He has all the tools to be a difference maker for the Wings, whether or not he can will be a major factor in their success this year.
Mock Trade: Isac Lundestrom (F) & ANA 2024 5th Round Pick for DET 2025 2nd Round Pick
8) Montreal Canadiens
Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2001)
Contender Status: Lottery Team
There are still so many questions to answer for Montreal, starting with just what exactly is Nick Suzuki? He’s being treated, presented, and perhaps most importantly, paid like a first line center. He has two consecutive 20 goal, 60 point seasons under his belt but little else to support the notion he can be The Guy. 2022 first overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky has all the tools to be an impactful top-six forward but will need to start delivering on that promise in order to justify his selection at the top of the draft. Kaiden Guhle, David Reinbacher, and Lane Hutson all provide significant upside from the backend, but unless they can find a true topline center, the Habs long-term viability as contenders remains suspect at best.
Team MVP: Martin St. Louis, HC – The difference in this team under the French-Canadian Hall of Famer versus under his predecessor (Domonic Ducharme) is considerable. That being said the overall talent level still isn’t up to snuff just yet so any abundance of success will almost surely be accompanied by a Jack Adams Award.
X-Factor: Cole Caufield, LW – Caufield is to this point exactly what both his champions and detractors said he would be – an elite goal scorer, and injury prone. His 26 goals in 46 games last year highlight both of these facts perfectly. For a team without any other major offensive weapons, Montreal needs their star goal scorer to stay healthy if they want to climb out of the lottery.
Mock Trade: Brayden Tracey (F) for Christian Dvorak (F) & MTL 2026 1st Round Pick
