There’s no question that the captain is having a monster season. While he hasn’t quite reached the Perry levels we saw in 2011 (probably because he doesn’t simply light the lamp), it begs the question of whether or not Getz deserves MVP consideration.
Because I’m lazy, and because Puck Daddy has a nice list of MVP contenders already created for me, I wanted to take a statistical exploration of the candidates for the Hart. And the nominees are:
I know what you’re thinking. There’s no way anybody but Crosby wins this. But I have a caveat, and it’s something that I truly believe in (and not just a gimmick for this post):
Crosby should be disqualified from consideration due to the percent of the season he’s going to miss. He’s currently appeared in 36 of the team’s 38 games, and likely won’t be back until the playoffs. Or, put another way, he’s going to end up missing fully 25% of the season. I know it’s a truncated season and everything, but I don’t think it’s fair to award the MVP to someone who a) doesn’t play in nearly all of the games or b) plays for a team that’s not making the playoffs.
So yeah, that means Stamkos is out too, since the Lightning are currently seven points out of a playoff spot.
That leaves us with Kane, Getz, and Kadri. Let’s get to it.
Goals, Assists, and Points
Since this will likely be decided on the basis of top-line numbers, here they are (all stats as of 4/4/13).
|
|
Getzlaf |
Kane |
Kadri |
|
Goals |
13 |
19 |
17 |
|
Points |
43 |
43 |
39 |
|
Games Played |
37 |
35 |
36 |
|
PP Points |
12 |
14 |
8 |
|
Total Points/60 |
3.42 |
3.59 |
4.04 |
|
ES Points/60 |
3.07 |
2.60 |
3.64 |
At the top level, everything looks pretty even. That said, Kadri’s 4.04 total points per 60 is damn impressive, especially given that he’s not racking up PP points like Getzlaf or Kane. Getz actually averages less TOI than Kane, but since the Blackhawks have played two fewer games than the Ducks, his total points per 60 tip the scales in his favor. However, much of Kane’s overall scoring is driven by his PP time, as his total points per 60 (including PP time) is a full point higher than his even strength points per 60. We can also see that Kadri and Kane are goal-scorers, whereas Getz picks up more points as a playmaker. Overall though, there’s not a clear leader here.
Flow of Play
Scoring doesn’t tell the whole story. Sure, it’s what gets guy into the conversation, but with how close this looks, we have to look at how these players control games when they’re on the ice.
|
|
Getzlaf |
Kane |
Kadri |
|
Corsi |
-1.8 |
-4.47 |
-1.63 |
|
Corsi Rel |
5.4 |
-16.5 |
14.2 |
|
Quality of Competition |
-0.011 |
0.039 |
-0.035 |
|
Shorthanded TOI/G |
1:37 |
0:00 |
0:09 |
|
Shorthanded Points |
2 |
0 |
0 |
|
Plus/Minus |
15 |
13 |
20 |
Kadri sports the best Corsi and Corsi Rel, but he also faces the worst competition. All three of these guys also have respectable plus/minus numbers. The thing that most jumps out at me is how bad Kane’s Corsi Rel is and the fact that neither Kane nor Kadri play much time shorthanded. I know that I’ll get slammed here for being a homer, but I think the fact that Getz has managed to put up the number of points he has, while averaging 1:37 of ice time a night on the kill, is pretty important. I am a little surprised that all three of these guys have a negative Corsi. I wouldn’t have guessed that.
Defensive Play
Like flow of play, it’s important to see how these players contribute to their defense. Corsi tells part of that story, but taking a look at their usage and their propensity to take care of the puck will give us a more complete picture.
|
|
Getzlaf |
Kane |
Kadri |
|
Offensive Zone Starts |
46.8% |
53.7% |
48.1% |
|
Takeaways |
21 |
34 |
22 |
|
Giveaways |
26 |
20 |
25 |
|
Blocked Shots |
35 |
7 |
17 |
|
Hits |
73 |
7 |
49 |
|
Faceoff % |
48.6 |
N/A |
42.4 |
Kane’s takeaway stats are staggering, but he’s clearly an offensive-first player. He enjoys a significantly more favorable zone start than the other players and he doesn’t hit much or block shots. While Kadri does do these things, Getzlaf still logs harder minutes and does more for his team (outhitting and outblocking Kane and Kadri combined). While the other categories have been relatively close, this area really shows Getzlaf’s true value to his team.
Conclusion
There are probably entire sets of people who will dismiss this for DQ’ing Crosby and Stamkos right away, but all I would say to those people, is that there are no defined rules for the awards. The defenseman with the most points usually gets in the conversation for the Norris, but Lubomir Visnovsky was completely snubbed a few years ago as a Duck, despite leading all defensemen in points. I’m not trying to re litigate the past here, rather I’m just showing that “Most Valuable Player” is entirely up to interpretation.
Statistically, it’s pretty close between Getz, Kane, and Kadri, but I think Getzlaf gets the nod because he’s the more complete player. He doesn’t rely solely on PP time to drive his stats and he plays harder minutes than any of the other players on this list. Offensive only guys already have two trophies, the Rocket Richard and the Art Ross. The MVP should go to someone who dominates games. And it’s pretty clear that Ryan Getzlaf is doing just that for the Ducks this season.