The Anaheim Ducks will start training camp for the 2023-24 season this Thursday, September 21st. The front office and coaching staff will use training camp to get an idea of the strengths and weaknesses for both the roster and individual players. Having a complete and accurate understanding of where the team stands heading into the season is crucial for not only establishing expectations for the year ahead, but also for forecasting which players can, will, and should be a part of the roster come April. While there is little question about Anaheim’s place in the league’s hierarchy right now, that doesn’t mean that the team’s overall “health” is set in stone. With that said, let’s take a look at a few key points to get a better overall understanding of where the Anaheim Ducks are in their lifecycle as a rebuilding team.
Note: All contract information is courtesy of CapFriendly.com, all advanced stats are courtesy of Evolving-Hockey.com, and all traditional counting stats are courtesy of Hockey-Reference.com, without whom all of this would be impossible.
Cap Health: Stable; Rapidly Improving
Despite all the hand-wringing and consternation over recent free agent signings, the overall state of Anaheim’s CapFriendly page is in a strong place. Sure, there are some concerns about Alex Killorn’s ability to live up to his 6.25AAV in the last year or two of the four year, $25 million contract he signed this summer. Not to mention the $25 million dollar contract Ryan Strome signed last summer doesnt look great one year in, though that money is spread over five years and Strome is four years younger. However, I think those concerns are mitigated by the fact that both Adam Henrique (5.850AAV) and Jakob Silfverberg (5.250AAV) are both in the final year of their respective deals and neither are locks to finish the season in a Ducks’ sweater, let alone be-resigned.
Aside from Strome, the only other contracts that could cause some issues for Verbeek and Co down the road are ones for John Gibson (4×6.400AAV) and Cam Fowler (3×6.500AAV). Even then, there are rumors Gibson is ready to move on and Fowler is for all intents and purposes the last tie in to the previous era of Ducks Greatness (mileage may vary). Troy Terry just signed a 7×7 contract that should see him remain in Orange County for the remainder of his prime and the next wave of Duck greats, with a few notable exceptions, have yet to even make their NHL debut. By and large the only real potential issues are the deals that Jamie Drysdale and Trevor Zegras have yet to sign. How Pat Verbeek and contract czar Jeff Solomon handle those negotiations will have a far greater impact on the Duck’s long-term outlook for team building than any of the free agent deals signed in the last two summers.
Source of Optimism: New System
Despite the lack of team success Anaheim had during his tenure, I remain an unabashed supporter of Dallas Eakins, especially when it comes to his impact off the ice. His dogged insistence on hard work, professionalism, and accountability helped to prepare the Ducks’ next generation of stars and difference makers for life in the NHL. That being said, it had become abundantly clear by the trade deadline (if not sooner) that from an on-ice perspective, the time had come to make a change behind the bench. Anaheim’s special teams were ineffective, their offensive system was non-existent, and their defensive structure lacked both cohesion and consistency.
There were undoubtedly significant hurdles to overcome due to the lack of talent and experience on the roster, but at the end of the day the head coach is responsible for getting the most out of the players he has. Unfortunately for both Dallas Eakins and Anaheim fans alike, that just never seemed to be the case. Heading into the upcoming season the Ducks will have new voices behind the bench at both the NHL and AHL levels, as well as several new faces throughout the lineup. Pat Verbeek will be hoping that combination provides a better on-ice product for Ducks fans this year.
While San Diego will be overseen by Matt McIlvane who is coming over after four years at the helm of ICEHL’s EC Salzburg, Anaheim will be under the purview of veteran coach Greg Cronin. Cronin has had a long and successful career at a number of levels in hockey. He was an assistant with the Islanders over two separate stints, has been a head coach in the NCAA with Northeastern, and most recently was the head coach of the Colorado Eagles in the AHL. Not to mention he was instrumental in the creation of the United States National Team Development Program (USNTDP), a program that has had success preparing American prospects for the NHL.
Based on the little we’ve heard from him regarding his coaching philosophy he seems to be a traditional “compete in all three zones and build good habits” type coach with a bit of a modern twist. He spoke to Ducks’ in-house media about the importance of establishing personal connections with players in order to build relationships that allow him to communicate with each player individually within the context of the team’s larger goals. The finer details of his vision for the Ducks scheme and style have yet to really come into focus, but if he can get the team on the same page that would be a huge improvement on the last few years where it was questionable if players were even reading from the same book.
Source of Concern: Goal Production
The Ducks road to becoming the Stanley Cup Champions in 2007 was paved by Teemu Selanne’s 48 goal season. Since then, Anaheim has only seen a player hit 40 goals in a season twice. Corey Perry scored 50 on the dot to bring home the franchise’s first and only MVP award in 2010-11, and then went on to score 43 goals over the course of the 13-14 season. Other than that it’s just been a dozen or so 30+ campaigns at the top of the goals column in Orange County. If the Ducks expect to compete, then that’s going to have to change.
Now, there is some hope to be found on the roster. Despite failing to eclipse the 30 goal mark last year, Troy Terry still has all the tools that saw him set a career high of 37 goals in the 2021-22 season. Trevor Zegras has registered back-to-back 23 goal seasons, and Mason McTavish emerged as a legitimate threat with the extra man after leading the team in power play goals last season thanks to an impressive one-timer. Add in the likes of Frank Vatrano, Alex Killorn, and Ryan Strome, and it’s possible they can address this concern by committee for the immediate future. Still, if they’re going to begin their ascent up the league standings someone is going to have to emerge as an elite goal scorer. Whether or not that someone is already in the organization remains to be seen.
Short term Prognosis: Acute Pain Caused by Rebuilding
This year is probably going to suck. It brings me no pleasure to say so, but there just isn’t all that much in the way of contradictory evidence. It should almost certainly be better than last year but in all honesty being worse would be far more of an accomplishment than just about anything short of winning the Cup. The Ducks were tied for second to last in Goals For per 60 (2.12) while allowing the second most Goals Against per 60 (3.4) at 5-on-5 last year. Add in an abysmal showing on special teams (15.7% on the powerplay and 72.1% on the penalty kill, both good for 31st in the league), and there is almost nowhere to go but up. And still, there is very little reason to expect this team to finish higher than 7th in the division, 13th in the conference, and 27th in the league. Fun times. Go Ducks.
Long Term Prognosis: Full Recovery Expected.
For as crap as the 2023-24 season is expected to be, the overall trajectory of the franchise is in a really good place. Leo Carlsson and Nathan Gaucher look to be the perfect additions to a promising, young forward core that already includes the likes of Zegras, Terry, and McTavish. The prospect pool is loaded with promising young talent waiting for the opportunity to prove themselves, including a trio of high-end blue-liners with the talent to impact the game at both ends of the ice. Lukas Dostal has flashed the potential to be a legitimate full-time NHL starter and there are a handful of intriguing young goaltenders behind him. New head coaches at both the NHL and AHL level provide hope that the chaotic, disjointed play that characterized the end of Eakins’ tenure as head coach will be a remnant of the past. The season ahead is likely to have more moral victories than regulation wins, but the opportunity to add a player the quality of Macklin Celebrini or Cole Eiserman is the perfect balm to soothe the pain of another year in the league’s basement.