It’s September 12th, do you know where your unsigned restricted free agents are?
That’s the question that Anaheim Ducks fans are starting to wonder about with star forward Trevor Zegras, who remains without a contract and a week before training camp begins. That’s the first kind of “deadline” in these negotiations, and a touchpoint where the two sides might see some movement in their talks. The next would be opening night of the regular season, and the true hard deadline is December 1st. If a free agent isn’t signed by that time, they’re ineligible to play the rest of the season. So that’s the greatest pressure point of them all.
So how can it be determined when Zegras will sign? There have been three high-profile restricted free agent forwards in recent years in the NHL that shows how this could play out.
In 2019, Mitch Marner looked headed to a hold-out for Toronto Maple Leafs training camp after negotiations stalled over the summer. But less than a week before training camp was set to open, the two sides agreed to a six-year, $65 million contract that will see him become a free agent at the end of the contract term.
The Dallas Stars went through a protracted negotiation with another top forward in the league in the summer of 2022. Top-line winger Jason Robertson did not have a new contract signed when training camp opened. He didn’t sign until one week before the regular season puck drop, missing the majority of training camp and the preseason. Robertson scored just two goals and five assists in his first seven games before lighting the NHL on fire with an 18-game point streak where he notched 21 goals and 34 points. He ended the regular season with a career-high 46 goals and 109 points. In other words, missing training camp didn’t really stop him all that much. “There’s not many guys who can miss an entire training camp dealing with contract stuff and then show up and have the start he had to the season,” Stars head coach Pete DeBoer told DallasStars.com after Robertson was nominated to the All-Star Game. DeBoer joked quite a bit that other free agents might take cues from Robertson and skip out on training camp if that was the kind of results they would get.
On the most extreme end of the spectrum was the hold-out of Maple Leafs forward William Nylander in 2018, who didn’t sign his extension until 4:55 PM EST on December 1st, five minutes before the deadline to sign and make him eligible to play that season. The entirety of the start to that season was overshadowed by trade rumors, threats to play in Europe, and plenty of frustration by the fans waiting for signs of one side giving in to get the deal done.
Which way will the Zegras negotiations fall?
Signs seem to be pointing more towards the Robertson scenario at this moment. It seems unlikely that the team and the player would want to have this stretch out into the season, but without much leverage, Zegras’ hands are kind of tied. The issue in the negotiation can’t possibly be cap hit — they have some of the most salary cap space to contend with of any team in the league — so it seems from the outside looking in that the sticking point would be term. Elliotte Friedman reported on the Sept. 4 edition of the Sportsnet 32 Thoughts podcast that Zegras and the Ducks are likely to settle on a bridge deal.
“I feel like it’s all kind of up in the air,” Zegras told NHL.com in early August. “Obviously, I’d love to get back to play as my teammates get back, but that’s kind of out of my control at the moment. I’ve got a pretty good setup [where he is training in Connecticut] in terms of working out and skating. Wherever we are with the contract, I know I’ll be doing good stuff to help me get ready for the season.”